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Hook won't let England and France off in the Six Nations betting

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Rugby Union betting legend Tony Calvin gives us his early thoughts on next year's Six Nations

So what will be the over-riding factor of who wins this year's Six Nations Championship?

Form, talent, the schedule or World Cup hang-ups?

Because if it is anything bar the latter then France are worthy favourites at 2.52 in a punter-friendly 102 per cent back book on Betfair.

Their form in the World Cup warm-up games, and defeats of Ireland and New Zealand in the tournament itself, proves that they have what it takes in the talent department.

And with three home matches in this year's tournament and away matches against Scotland first up and Wales in their final fixture, they probably have the best schedule too.

But how much did those defeats at the hands of Argentina (a humiliating 34-10 third place play off loss) and England in the semi-final dent their morale and confidence?

Only time will tell but I would inclined to give them a miss (if not a lay), mainly because I fancy Scotland to beat them in the opening game.

The Scots didn't do themselves justice at the World Cup and a touch more self belief could have seen them beat Argentina in the quarter finals.

They have bulked up massively over the summer, their scrum (they pushed the Pumas off their ball once) and line out are decent and they have dangerous runners and the most accurate goalkicker in international rugby.

They have their two hardest matches at home - and remember they beat England and France at Murrayfield in 2006 - and will doubtless appeal to many at 18.5 on Betfair.

I think away matches at Ireland, Wales and Italy could prove their undoing - they are all tough games - but they are not to be dismissed.

Italy are a side that will yield to no-one in the scrummage and they have an eight that can match the best. But they were the biggest disappointment in the World Cup given the firepower up front, and it is easy to see why they are the outsiders at 85 on Betfair given three away matches in Ireland, Wales and France.

England also have three games on the road and if you told me a month ago that they would be 3.75 for the Six Nations with a schedule of Wales and Ireland at home, and the remainder away, I would have laughed.

But in Andy Sheridan, they have the cornerstone of a mighty pack for years to come and when you talk about World Cup momentum, these boys have it in spades.

But the price is too short given their fixtures, and the fact that Ireland - now there is a side in the doldrums - have France in Paris and England at Twickenham means they quickly get the a David Duckham like swerve at 5.5. The heart and the passion has gone, and O'Driscoll and D'Arcy went missing in action in France this autumn.

No, the side that interests me around the 10 mark is Wales.

Stop laughing at the back please.

Yes, the side that lost to Fiji. Yes the side who only avoided the Wooden Spoon last year by beating England in their final match.

Wales were obviously disappointing in the World Cup and played suicide rugby against the Fijians. But that Fiji side were running hot - just ask the relieved Springboks - and there is no doubt in my mind that Wales have the most incisive and inventive threequarters in this Championship should they get the ball.

If the pack fronts up, then home matches against France, Scotland and Italy are very winnable and they may just fancy their chances against England first up at Twickenham.

Can you imagine the hype that will surround England in that game?

It is just possible that the England players will believe it and reap the consequences.

I'll take a chance with Wales.

To read more about next year's Six Nations:

http://www.rbs6nations.com/splash.htm