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Italy v England: If Italy can hold England till half-time it's game on

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Geoffrey Riddle talks us through the betting as Italy host England in today's Six Nations clash

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Italy [6.6] v England [1.2] Draw [40.0]

Poor Brian Ashton. The 61-year-old England coach has had a torrid week, and just when England put in two impressive training performances on the trot, some clumsy forward goes and studs the skipper, Phil Vickery, in the calf.

England need to put in a big performance against Italy this Sunday in Rome and the signs were there in the first half against Wales last week that they are capable of doing so. Solid in the first 40 against the Welsh at Twickenham, they inexplicably collapsed once the half-time oranges were thrown away.

Wales are always mindful of the ebb and flow of a rugby match, and where they often lie down when the going gets tough, they are also ruthless when they spot a weakness in a foe.

Italy are not so clinical in exploiting such avenues and a lot hinges on the effectiveness of what is undoubtedly a gamble by their brilliant coach Nick Mallet. In Andrea Masi, the Azzurri have a thoroughly able footballer, but whether he can translate that ability to the pivotal role still remains to be seen.

The ploy worked brilliantly for Marcelo Loffreda when he trialled Juan Martin Hernandez in the No.10 jersey for Argentina at the World Cup, but it backfired spectacularly for England when Andy Farrell failed to gel in the fulcrum role against South Africa at the same tournament.

The match handicap has been set at 14.5 for Sunday, which is half of what the regular bookmakers were offering when England visited the Eternal City in 2006.

Whether this is a measure of how far England have fallen, or the esteem with which punters now hold Italy is a moot point, but it brings sharply into focus the difference two years can make.

Back in 2006, England laboured to a 20-7 victory, which saw the Italians just 7-6 down at the interval. The half-time handicap is 7.5, with Italy trading at [1.68].

Italy proved last week that their improvement is continuing under Mallett, and England showed that they are still an unsteady ship. With that in mind it may pay to support the home side for the first half, and watch with interest to see what the second 40 minutes hold for England this week having pocketed a tidy profit.

(Geoffrey uses www.statsonsport.com for his analysis)