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Ireland v Italy: Azzurri planning to floor out-of-form O'Driscoll and Ireland

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Expert on all egg-shaped matters Geoffrey Riddle on why the game will be won amongst the forwards and could lead to a low-scoring affair

Ireland [1.1] v Italy [12] Draw [44]

(Using www.statsonsport.com)

Nick Mallett is one of the most highly-rated coaches in world rugby, but the engaging former Springbok coach has got one hell of a job trying to better last year's magnificent Six Nations' performance by his new side, Italy. The Azzurri have three away matches in this season's Six Nations, and with Ireland first up, Mallett has a baptism of fire.

Ireland have lost just four matches in Dublin since the 2003 World Cup, all to teams significantly better than the Six Nation's minnows, and it easy to see why you must pay [1.1] to back Ireland to win this fixture.

From an in-running trading perspective though, the home side look poor value. They have an average record of scoring the first points and tries in matches at home in the last four years, and the move from Lansdowne Road probably hasn't helped either.

Betfair have given Mallett's men a 16.5-point headtstart, which looks a generous offer at [1.9]. That start would have been enough in the last three meetings between the two in Dublin. Although Ireland are likely to be better than they were in the warm-up match against Italy in the summer of last year, it is difficult to escape the fact that the Azzurri almost sneaked a win at Ravenhill.

Ireland beat their visitors 23-20 that day and after a sorry World Cup campaign, it is questionable whether Eddie O'Sullivan has got his squad hitting their straps for this first match.
O'Sullivan has had problems in sweeping out the cobwebs of his side's poor campaign in France, and although Ronan O'Gara has looked more himself for Munster this season, the inclusion of out-of-form Llanelli forward, Simon Easterby, in the back-row has raised more than a few eyebrows. With centres Gordon D'Arcy and skipper Brian O'Driscoll also looking below par so far this term, and talisman Paul O'Connell still out, Ireland could put in a sluggish performance.

Of course the Irish squad will be buoyed by a decent Heineken Cup campaign from Munster, but that has been the case for years and Leinster hardly set the tournament alight, while Ulster's troubles have been well-documented.

Mallett has named a powerful pack to face the Irish, led admirably by skipper Sergio Parisse and fearsome Leicester prop Martin Castrogiovanni, who receives his 50th cap. Mallett said at a recent press conference that his team's strength lay in the forwards, and if the rains flood Croke Park on Saturday, a forward-dominated game will be relished by both sides.

O'Gara likes nothing better than to kick for the corners, but the Italian second-row are some of the best around, and they will be looking to steal possession at all times. In last year's tussle, Ireland lost four line-outs to the Italians, who also managed to steal eight off the French. Although Marco Bortolami misses out, his replacement, Ulster's Carlo Del Fava, will surely be able to pass on some secrets to the Italians.

And that could well be the secret to squeezing out value in the total points market. Ireland and Italy average over 50 points in their 10 matches that they have played since 2000, but if the two packs take each other on in a show of strength, points could be hard to come by.
Over/under points can be traded at 42.5, and although the stats are there to say that a high-scoring fixture is expected, a look at how the game will pan out doesn't necessarily indicate this will happen.