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England v Wales - You can bet your life Wales will target Balshaw

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Pablo Luna - Moonlighting for Betfair. Pablo looks at Warren Gatland's selections to face an England side that may be more vulnerable than they look

On Saturday 2 February 2008 England play Wales in the RBS Six Nations opener at Twickenham and it is the most appetising dish in the rugby calendar. It is a very good time for this Welsh team to play England as they are in a no-lose situation. It will be a tough encounter and a crucial one for the Welsh - if they beat England they will believe they can go on to win the but I expect them to just fall short. Whatever happens I expect Wales, with the most exceptional and best coaching team behind them, to improve rapidly for the remainder of the competition!

Warren Gatland has named a record representation of 13 Osprey players in his first starting line-up for Wales and it is obvious he wants the team ethic in place first. Of course this will not please all Welshmen and you can imagine the noises coming from the capital, especially with the dropping of gutted Lion stars Shanklin and Jenkins. Paradoxically that there are more Ospreys in the Welsh team than Welsh in the Ospreys team.

Gatland said "We haven't gone out to pick as many Ospreys as possible by design, the fact that there are 13 of them is probably more of a coincidence than anything else". I believe it has been by design as he has admitted compromising team selection but he urgently needs to develop the team collective principle first. It is interesting that Gatland had already been working with the Ospreys' forwards before the Gloucester game and their form has improved since. He talks about utilising time in order to compete with the vastly superior English forwards. The lineout is a mediocre area for both Wales and England and it remains to be seen who wins this battle.

The Welsh do not have a realistic chance of winning. Predictably Gatland is using characteristic underdog rhetoric and has been quick to deflate the bubble of expectation. It is imperative they play in the right areas and get the balance right as any imbalance will cost them dear. For Wales [5.8] to beat England [1.24] they will need superlative performances from their key players and for England to under perform. England are [2.66] to win by less than 12.5 pts and that is my selection - prices with Betfair.

The best player for Wales may be the confrontational Gatland himself. His mind games with the England back three started early and he intends to bring pressure on referee Craig Joubert (South Africa) "a la" Jose Mourinho style regarding alleged rule breaking (see Lewis Moody).

He is looking for every edge possible and will surely have the Welsh stoked up. It is worth mentioning that Wales have a very strong bench but England have the wow and x factor in reserve with Cipriani and Vainikolo.

Enfant terrible Henson is given an opportunity to resurrect his career and he will be a key player along with Hook and Parker. They will be bombarding skyscraper balls then rushing towards the shocking selection of 'can't catch, can't tackle' Balshaw. Watch Ian Gough, (check his price to be first tryscorer with Betfair), attempt to clatter his rib cage from these kicks. Balshaw is a gaffe selection from Ashton as he is the weakest link in the England chain and Wales will anticipate dividends from this tactic. The centre partnership of Parker and Henson have been very effective for the Ospreys this season, particularly in the Heineken Cup and Gatland wants to go with the proven and in-form midfield combination against the English, so this will be the Welsh's best hope.

Despite Wales's game plan I expect England to pick them off with the ultimate professional and brilliant Jonny Wilkinson getting more than his fair share of the ball. I also expect him to finish as overall top points scorer.

In the England camp the major surprise is versatile Mathew Tait being cruelly axed from the squad. He was England's best player in the World Cup Final only three months ago, I cannot explain that decision!

Understandably, Ashton has resisted the temptation to replace Jonny Wilkinson with Wasps's 20-year-old fly half Danny Cipriani for now. Vainikolo the supreme athlete, is set for an impact role from the bench but should have started ahead of Sackey and Luke Narraway makes his England debut. I would have dropped loyalty man Vickery and made Tindall captain.

I have predicted an England win by 9 points but should England grind out the win or should they reflect Brian Ashton's more attacking and creative personality? Martin Johnson has said forget style - just win! I think that winning the first game is everything in the Six Nations and once that is done you then have license to express yourself in the following matches. What do you think?