Betfair Official Blog

Blair will have to step up to the Mike against France

Click here to view market

Morgan in the driving seat - Allsy talks us through the betting as Scotland lock horns with France in their Six Nations' opener

Every pundit seems to agree that this year's Six Nations tournament is more open than ever. In contrast to last year, several teams will justifiably expect to win the tournament but to my mind Scotland is not among them.

Nevertheless, the positive vibes emanating from the Scots ahead of Sunday's game against France is essential. Every nation will be banging the drum and beating their chests amidst talk of 'new beginnings' but I've been amazed at how many commentators sense a Scottish revival on the horizon.
Much has been said about the new France coach and his inexperienced squad but this side is [2.74] favourites to win the tournament for a reason.

For many, new coach Marc Lièvremont was a controversial appointment but he certainly can't be accused of fudging selection issues. There's no Sébastien Chabal or Frédéric Michalak in the squad but this well-known duo were often replacements during last year's World Cup anyway.

Lièvremont brought the guillotine down on 10 players from the World Cup squad ensuring that youthful talent would be given its chance. Factor in the retirement of legendary flanker Serge Betsen and it becomes obvious that Lièvremont is building for a future beyond this tournament but there is still plenty of experience in the side.

Four France debutants line up against Scotland while only four other players faced England in their World Cup semi-final defeat. Many pundits perceive inexperience but I see fresh, exciting talent especially at fly half where Francois Trinh-Duc is set to play. Montpellier's 21-year-old prodigy is solid in defense, a strong kicker and, like England's star-in-waiting Cipriani, always seems able to influence proceedings with air of calm assurance. It's a huge step up for a huge talent.

The France pack will be virtually unrecognisable but there have been plenty of changes in the Scottish camp too and for my part Scotland's price of [12.5] to win the Six Nations seems about right.

While I'm dismissing Scotland's chances of making a significant impact on this year's tournament I do concede that they have a chance of beating France. You can back Scotland at [2.64] to win Sunday's match while France are favourites at [1.68] and the draw is [30].

The home team will try to set the tempo and rattle France from the off so the form and distribution of Mike Blair will be central to their gameplan. All the talk has been of a new, expansive style of rugby from Frank Hadden's side but I don't see much finesse in the Scotland pack so all eyes will look to Blair to control the pace and direction of Scotland's attacking ball.

The Scotland back line has been remodeled with Lamont now at full back and Walker playing on the wing alongside the highly rated De Luca. There's definite talent but I'm still reeling from the omission of Chris Paterson from the starting line up.
His 100% kicking during the World Cup should have guaranteed him a starting place but for a dispute over his position. Perhaps Hadden thought Paterson too big for his kicking boots but dropping the squad's most capped player could be a costly error, especially when you consider the playing conditions.

Reports are streaming in that the Murrayfield pitch is in pretty bad shape while there's a good chance that the elements (there's a high chance of snowfall) will take centre stage.
France will not relish the prospect of playing in such terrible weather but it's likely that neither team will play too much expansive rugby in such circumstances.

With both squads remodeled to a large extent I expect an open game and fancy Scotland, at [2.24], to score the first try. However, over 80 minutes I expect France to be too strong for the hosts and would back the Holders to win at [1.68] in a close finish.

Have I been too harsh on the Scots? Let me know who you'd back and why?