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Six Nations Betting: Market overreactions can allow you to cash in this week

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Tony Calvin thinks punters may be overestimating the French ... and England

Overreaction is one of the worst traits a punter can possess, and that is something to bear in mind when assessing the prices and handicaps on offer for the second round of Six Nations matches this weekend.

The France-Ireland game in Paris could just be a case a point.

There is no doubt whatsoever that the new-look French side surpassed expectations when beating Scotland 27-6 at Murrayfield last week, while the Irish side continued their drab ways when scrambling past the Italians 16-11 at Croke Park.

So the obvious conclusion to draw from those results is that France will coast home when the two sides meet this weekend. This is borne out from the pre-tournament match handicap line of nine changing to as high as 14 with some bookmakers.

But does that conclusion translate into France being 1.2 chances on Betfair to win the match and at [1.92] to cover the -12.5 exchange handicap?

I have my doubts.

First, let's dig a bit deeper into France's Murrayfield win. Yes, they were fast, fluent and dangerous in attack, and watertight in defence - far more so than anticipated for a side that had jettisoned some of its recent stalwarts and mainstays.

But you cannot get away from the fact that the Scots pretty much handed them the win with their consistent breakdown turnovers and persistent handling errors, while France's first try was an outrageous forward pass and their other two touchdowns the result of fortuitous bounces.

On the other side of the coin, if Ireland don't wake from their World Cup slumbers - and despite the scoreline there were early signs in the Italian match they could be sparking into life - then they will lose to the French for the seventh consecutive time.

And lose big too, just as they did in a 25-3 World Cup defeat last autumn.

But I'm fan of over-reacting to one performance, particular when it comes to the French - witness their quarter and semi-final World Cup performances.

Last week there was a colossal late move for England against Wales, and I think the public and "obvious" money will arrive for France in this game just before kick-off, so I would suggest putting into lay France at [1.17] in the match odds market and stick in to oppose them at [1.82] in the -12.5 line.

Well, that's what I will be doing anyway, with a view to trading in-running.

Conversely, I think the market has actually under-reacted in the Italy-England game, where the handicap lines as pretty much as you were pre-tournament.

I don't agree that England secured defeat from the jaws of victory against Wales at Twickenham last week - though the people backing England at [1.02] and laying Wales at [75.0] clearly believed the victory had passed the jaws, slipped down the oesophagus and was in the process of being digested - as they were never more than 13 points up in the match, and hardly have a recent history of scoring tries for fun and piling up the points (Wales, with a more penetrative backline, were always in the game).

But that is exactly what punters backing England to overcome a double-digit handicap - Betfair have set the main handicap line at 14.5 - in Italy on Sunday believe they will do.

To be fair, Italy can be over-run when confronted by a class side playing fast and loose, but it is doubtful whether England can up the tempo sufficiently to go down that route.

And if Italy can keep their opponents to within a score and don't have to play catch-up rugby, then I think punters who have backed England as short as [1.08] in the match odds market could well have a very uncomfortable second-half.

Italy look to have all the tools in the pack to take England to the cleaners at scrum-time - I think it will actually be a positive for the home side if the over-rated injury doubt Phil Vickery plays - and they have more chance of winning this match than even the revised and odds of [1.2] England and [6.6] Italy imply.