He should have received the nation's wholehearted thanks for his spirited and erstwhile efforts and then removed prior to the RBS Six Nations Championship. At the age of 62 he did not have the drive, energy or the authority to fulfil English hopes of winning the World Cup in 2011. He does feel that he should have had some input into the appointment of a manager and the failure to include him in the process has left him humiliated and bewildered and I empathise with those feelings.

There are reservations in some quarters that Martin Johnson (38) has no managing or coaching experience. Accepting that experience is usually a vital pre-requisite but will this count against him? No - because ultimately it is the calibre of the person that matters. This pillar of inspiration is the right choice at the right time. I am genuinely excited by his appointment!

Unlike the Peter Moores (English cricket) scenario, he has spent his whole career playing international rugby at top class level and has worked closely with some of the best coaches in the game. He has a good rugby brain, will instil passion and is a morale-boosting colossus. He knows what a successful team looks and smells like and has the road map to get there.

His pedigree goes before him. With 84 caps over 11 years he is regarded as the greatest lock to have ever played. Johnson led the England side to a Grand Slam and World Cup victory in 2003. He toured three times with the British and Irish Lions, becoming the only man to have captained them on two separate tours. He also led his club Leicester Tigers to back-to back Heineken Cup victories and won the league six times. Like all great players he delivered when the stakes were at their highest. I think he is England's greatest-ever player! What do you think?

He is known for his strong leadership and "no-nonsense" approach to the game and will instantaneously have the attention and respect of the current crop of players and able to groom those about to enter the set-up. He recognises the importance of the team ethos and the collective. Johnson has no ego and will not be messed around and he has promised to bring a new and fresh approach to team development and preparation but in his own inimitable style. If you want to look inside a window of his personality please visit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BdsTh2oP6o

This icon of English rugby is a little providential in that he has arrived at an incisive and exciting time. The standard of the Premiership has developed a high-quality crop of young players and in a couple of years they will be going places in the England side. He has been given carte blanche to appoint coaches, oversee selection, direct operations and put in place all the details necessary to make England a constant power in world rugby.

We can now legitimately look forward to the 2011 World Cup. Present Betfair odds show: New Zealand [1.86] Australia [5.8] South Africa [6.4] France [10.5] England [10.5] Wales [16.5] Ireland [17.5] Argentina [21] Scotland [32] Italy [100]. I know it is early doors but worthy of note that the market has formed with England shorter than Wales, Scotland and Argentina. Not sure whether I agree with that...

This will be Munster's tenth consecutive year in the knockout stages of the Heineken Cup and Saracens' first, which highlights in itself what a mountain the English team have to climb if they are to justify their quotes of around [4.1].

Although the Ricoh Arena may be considered a home game for Sarries, that perceived advantage may not be what coach Alan Gaffney should place his hopes on this weekend. Anyone who saw the Irish province go down by a single point there to Wasps in the opening round of this year's tournament, will know that Coventry will hold no fears for the formidable Munstermen.

Munster once again proved how good they can be away from the Emerald Isle when they trounced Premiership league leaders Gloucester 16-3 in the last round at Kingsholm.
All in, Munster have played 15 knockout matches away from Thomond Park and won seven of them, which is a fair return in Europe's premier competition.

If you look at those fixtures as a whole though, it is interesting to see that total points average a mere 34.5, with just three matches throwing up more than 40 points. It is a stark set of figures, and one that should see Betfair punters trade a furious amount come match time on the total points market that has been set at over/under 39.5.

Munster travel to the Midlands having failed to cross the tryline in their last two matches. They were comprehensively outpointed by Leinster 21-12 at the Royal Dublin Society two weeks ago, and their B team scraped past the Ospreys 9-8 last week. They have managed just three tries in their last four games.

Despite their obvious class, Munster are clearly not playing at their best at the moment and they are so short at [1.36] purely because Saracens have been pretty poor of late.

Sarries have been a mystery since their form crumbled at the beginning of February. Prior to that month, Alan Gaffney's side had won six from their last eight games, which included the 45-16 thrashing of traditional French powerhouse Biarritz.

Since then, we now look at a team that has won just four from 11. They were horrible last week against Wasps, conceding five tries in the first 40 minutes before finally going down 40-29. Perhaps it was the pink shirts they were forced to wear in aid of Breast Cancer Care, or perhaps it is something deeper than that, something which also saw them get beat 39-15 the week before by Gloucester.

The battling 19-10 victory over the Ospreys in the quarter-final earlier this month, showed that Sarries do have the class to take a big scalp when everything clicks, but would you really be able to persuade your bank manager that the Men in Black were a sound investment?

Saracens are pinning their hopes on the return of Richard Hill in the back-row, a man that can barely walk. Hill is undoubtedly one of the greatest back-row forwards of his generation, but surely it is too much to ask of the great man to orchestrate a win for his side.

Although I consider Munster slightly too short, the way Sarries have been playing recently does not allow enough room to lay the Irishmen in-running. As already mentioned, Wasps put five tries past Saracens in the first half, Gloucester scored two tries inside 18 minutes against them two weeks ago, and even James Hook opened the scoring for the Ospreys.

Quite simply, with neither side really offering any value, the best trade of the match could be to get low of points at 39.5. The stats show that it should be a low-scoring affair, and with Munster struggling to cross the whitewash, and Sarries in Jekyll and Hyde mode, it looks the safest play of the tie.

Both English sides have been rated underdogs by bookmakers and Betfair traders, and if the stats have any bearing at all, it is for good reason.

If you look at the first half of Heineken Cup history from 1995 to 2001, there were 32 victories in the knockout stages for teams playing at home, or in a stadium in their particular country, from 40 such matches. In the latter half of the tournament from 2002, there were just 18 "home" wins from 36 such fixtures.

Home advantage is clearly not what it used to be in the Heineken Cup therefore, and punters have a fair conundrum in working out if both Heineken Cup veterans Toulouse and Munster merit their short prices for victory.

Irish [3.35] v Toulouse [1.46] Draw [30]

Momentum can be a very important commodity in rugby union. Obviously in the micro sense it is crucial, as it allows someone like hulking Toulouse flanker Finau Maka to smash through a tackle, but in a macro sense, it could allow a team like London Irish their day of glory against a side like three-times Heineken Cup kings Toulouse.

Since January Irish coach Brian Smith has quietly been going about his business down in Reading, and yet very few people have noticed that the Exiles have won 11 of their 14 matches this year.

They went through a bit of a wobble in March when three tough games on the bounce against Gloucester (a), Wasps (h) and Bath (a) saw them get turned over consecutively, but other than that, it has been plain sailing. And it is not as if Bath and Wasps really had it their own way anyway. Wasps came away from the Madejski Stadium with a 22-16 win, and Bath had to work very hard to sneak a 19-16 victory at The Rec.

Those three teams are the best that England has to offer right now, and although Toulouse currently inhabit second spot in the French Top 14, it is not the strongest side that coach Guy Noves has ever brought to these shores.

Last weekend, Toulouse had the stuffing knocked out of them by new-kids on the block Clermont. The Auvergnats came to Le Stadium in the centre of Toulouse, and taught Les Toulousains a proper lesson; knocking out Thierry Dusatoir in the third minute, watching winger Vincent Clerc go off on a stretcher having snapped a cruciate ligament, and finally coming away with a 23-11 road win.

It was a chastening experience for Toulouse, and one which has put a serious dent in their confidence. Dusatoir and Clerc are two key losses, but Noves' unavailable list reads like a who's who of world rugby: Jean-Baptiste Poux, Gaffie Du Toit, Florian Fritz, Clement Poitrenaud, Yannick Jauzion and Valentin Courrent.

English teams have won around 70% of their skirmishes with French sides over here in the Heineken Cup and five from seven in the knockout stages. Toulouse were the most recent French team to beat an English side on their own turf, beating Leicester 27-19 at the Walkers Stadium in 2005.

It was an incredible performance that day, not least because the Leicester side contained Martin Johnson and Neil Back, and it still remains the biggest winning margin by any Toulouse side in a knockout Heineken Cup match away from France.

It will be an interesting to see how both sides approach this Twickenham clash. Toulouse have scored the second-most tries of any team in their league with 52 from their 18 fixtures, while they also have the second-best defence in the Top 14 having let in 18, two more than miserly Biarritz. In contrast, London Irish have scored the third-least tries in the Premiership with 34 in 20 matches.

Most punters will take a look at the names of Toulouse's two wingers, Yves Donguy and Maxime Medard, and not have a clue who they are. That would be a mistake however, as Medard has scored a try every other game in the Top 14 this season.

The visitors have every right to be favourites for this fixture, given what they have achieved both in their domestic league, and this season's Heineken Cup. But the core of the XV that achieved all of that are unlikely to take to the field this weekend.

London Irish are playing to the best of their ability at the moment and if Mike Catt makes the line-up, the wily old centre can pull the strings and see his side put in a massive performance. Betfair offer a 6.5-point start for the Exiles, which looks good enough for me.

Ospreys head coach Lyn Jones is now under serious pressure for his job to get his team to perform at a level pertaining to their abilities. The Ospreys have won two Magners League crowns but despite boasting a squad of rugby galacticos, many of whom guided Wales to Grand Slam glory this year, they have yet to win a knock-out cup competition. As the Liberty Stadium region are out of Europe and the Magners League title chase, the EDF Energy Cup is their only hope of silverware this season.

It is patently clear that there is something amiss with the big-spending Ospreys. Watching the replay of the Saracen match there was stark confirmation that Byrne, Holah, Marshall, Parker and Hook had the most awful games but what was the reason? Are they basking in the comfort zone or are they being mismanaged? Surely it is unfair to blame the coach when those who drop passes with clear run ins to the try line, miss tackles completely and execute rank poor kicking?

Ospreys have not beaten Leicester in four meetings and Coach Jones will be hoping his team avenge their defeat to them in last season's EDF Energy final to ease the mounting pressure on him. For this to happen he needs James Hook to step up to the plate. Gatland has recognised a flaw in his game hence this potentially brilliant player sharing the Welsh fly-half duties with Stephen Jones especially when the word control is needed.

James Hook (22) is a magnificent and creative rugby player and he has now got the experience so he must now repay the accolades. Time to forget being called the new Barry John or the next Dan Carter he has got to boss-stamp his own authority on the match. His running style is fine when you are on top or winning but sometimes you have to play percentages. When I witnessed him attempting to catch a ball behind his back in deep defence and then finding a yard with the resultant kick my annoyance reached fever pitch! I am sure Gatland would have substituted him at that point if he were in a Welsh shirt!

Is he a luxury player, is he tactically aware? He obviously does not understand the team ethic/control role. I would not consider dropping him for this game however especially with the injury situation to Henson. Perhaps Shaun Edwards could give him a wake up call and take him to one side and bark in his ear reminding him of his duties and what is expected of him. After his miserable and wretched display at Vicarage Road he owes Ospreys big time! I am convinced he will become a great but the time starts now!

Leicester will have their traditional tough mentality with a confrontational front five, a ball-carrying back row, a decent set-piece and creative backs. Their fly-half is Andy Goode (28) who is a three-time Heineken Cup finalist with the Tigers and it was him who inspired the Tigers to a 34-24 semi-final win over Wasps where he easily outshone Danny Cipriani. Goode has played terrific rugby this year despite a background of gossip about who will fill the No.10 shirt at Welford Road next season.

Goode is a prolific scoring machine with his boot and capable of long range drop goals should the game be tight. This street fighter understands the value of running the attack by putting his team mates into space. Unlike Hook, Goode controls the game tactically and shrewdly from fly-half and his analytical mind searches for defensive frailties, where he spends hours on the video equipment looking for areas to expose. He and Danny Hipkiss hold the key to this EDF Energy Final.

Goode's irrepressible form at present represents a monster for Ospreys to control. Latest Betfair odds show: Leicester Tigers at [1.61] with Ospreys at [2.72] and the Draw is [23]. Can Ospreys tame the Tigers and bring some of their Grand Slam form to the match, that is the question? If they don't, it could be a mauling.

Saracens enjoyed an orgy of scoring against Leeds last week to reignite their play-off hopes. They will hope that the result is the perfect preparation for this game but the reality is the Yorkshire club are plunging back to the National League One. Leeds also had 12 squad members missing so the value of the win was hollow and insignificant - so I would argue the word 'preparation'. I do understand that the Sarries must look for scraps of comfort wherever they can.

Looking for encouraging words to give to Alan Gaffney's side is almost impossible. Yes, they have home advantage but England had home advantage at Twickenham against the Ospreys and lost! Sarries will also miss lock Chris Jack more than Ospreys miss Mike Phillips, both out for the season.

You could say that Saracens are a wounded animal and eager to compete after getting walloped by the Ospreys 30-3 in the semi-final of the EDF Energy Cup semi-final at The Millennium Stadium on the 22 March 2008. You could say that but I will not! In that game Saracens never looked like scoring a try and this detail will not be lost on either side. Unfortunately Saracens are playing for pride and pride only!

Teams now fear the Ospreys but I was astonished with their reduced discipline against Ulster last week. After the Grand Slam-winning campaign I did not think that possible with that group of players! There were mistakes and silly penalties given away and it was something that we thought under Gatland had been addressed. Could it be complacency? It must have been! I spoke to Gavin Henson after training on Thursday (pictured) and he confirmed that discipline was an issue and they were taking nothing for granted!

You can be assured this week's training sessions contained reinforcing what they learned during the Six Nations Championship. This would count against Sarries because now there has been renewed emphasis on this side of the game.

Jeremy Guscott is the latest to have gone full circle regarding the Ospreys, after first damning them he is now their biggest fan and says " I believe they are on the verge of a huge breakthrough - something absolutely magical - that could lead to them becoming the biggest and best club in the UK". I agree with him. For this to happen they must brush aside the Sarries first!

Watching them training I sense that the Ospreys are in no mood to relax and the coming week represents club success or failure. The players have been living in a pressure cooker all season and have improved for it. They now have the pedigree to win! Current odds with Betfair show: Ospreys [1.59] with Saracens [2.8] and the draw [25]. The Ospreys win represents real value because the Sarries cannot win this match!

On 12 April 2008 Ospreys play Leicester Tigers in the EDF Energy Cup Final at Twickenham and this match will be a lot closer. There might be a little bit of needle in this game that should interest the neutral. I am curious to see how close Welsh club rugby is to the English scene at this moment in time. What do you think? Latest odds from Betfair show the Tigers favourite at [1.8] with the Ospreys [2.1] for Outright Winners. I think it will be very close indeed and would not like to call it! The result on Sunday might help me make up my mind...

Leicester have a ten-point advantage in the Premiership table going into this clash, but those who like to trot out the line "the table never lies," must take into account that the London side have two games in hand and had an atrocious start to the season.

It is interesting therefore to see Leicester as favourites, which, given that they have won four of
the last five meetings, is probably fair on paper. However, when you delve a little deeper, over the last few years Wasps have won the encounters that really mattered.

They demolished the Tigers 25-9 in last season's Heineken Cup final at Twickenham. They pipped them 22-17 in the 2006 Powergen Cup semi-final, which was also played in Cardiff, and a year before that they triumphed in the Premiership final.

Both sides look pretty much at full strength, and although Leicester may win the Premiership clash next weekend, when there's silverware at stake Wasps have the upper hand.

Ospreys [1.35] v Saracens [2.8] Draw [18.5]

It has been ten long years since Saracens' fans have been to a cup final, but this year the Men in Black have two bites of the cherry. Both times though, they must face up to the mighty Ospreys, a team which could comprise of no fewer than 14 of the Wales squad that swept all before them in this year's Six Nations Championship.

Like the two sides that play before them, Saracens must play their EDF Energy Cup rivals soon after this clash, this time though in a Heineken Cup quarter-final in two week's time at Vicarage Road. Some might say, therefore, that we have a 'humdinger' of a double-header over the next fortnight, but one which may produce two distinctly different ties.

Ospreys assistant coach Sean Holley, was quick to highlight earlier this week how he expects each match to pan out. "The first game will be quite open and Saracens will be interested in an open game," he said. "The second game (the Heineken Cup quarter-final) will probably be a much more cagey affair," he added.

There is no doubt that the Wales team of this year have looked to cross the tryline. They scored 148 points in this year's Championship (just three points shy of their record 2005 haul) and that hunger for points has been reflected in the Ospreys' play as well.

Lyn Jones's side have played 20 matches in the Heineken Cup and EDF Energy Cup in Wales, and they average just over 25 points per game in those fixtures. Last time out in the Heineken Cup they mauled Premiership table-toppers Gloucester 32-15 at the Liberty Stadium, and at this stage of the EDF Cup last year they thrashed Cardiff 27-10 in the Millennium.

Saracens on the other hand come into this game under a bit of a cloud. Since the start of February Alan Gaffney's side seem to have forgotten what made them such a vibrant free-scoring side earlier this season. Wins against Worcester and Sale at home are all they have to show from their last six matches.

There is an argument for saying that the Premiership club will be more cohesive, having played league matches during the Six Nations. For those who feel that the Grand Slam will have a galvanising effect on the Ospreys, consider this though: Welsh sides won less than half of the fixtures played in the remainder of the 2005 season after winning the Grand Slam (not including all-Welsh affairs).

Personally, I don't give Saracens a chance of beating the Ospreys so [1.35] looks like pretty good value for a Welsh win at the stadium where so many of the same players only just completed a famous Grand Slam victory over France, particularly in what should be a high scoring tie.

They drifted from a starting price of around [1.74] to [2.2] on the match odds market to beat France at the Millennium Stadium with the scores tied half-way through the second half but the real damage was done on the Wales -15.5 handicap market where the home side were matched at [12.0] before a very late Martyn Williams try secured a comfortable win.

Shane Williams was matched at a high of [14.0] to be top tryscorer of the tournament.

A last-gasp drop-goal from Marcato when the scores were tied at 20-20 was good enough for those who had backed Italy in running at odds of [10.0] on Betfair to beat Scotland. The home side had drifted to this price when trailing by seven points in the second-half before Canale's converted try leveled proceedings. The draw was matched at a low of [1.7] with the scores tied and with less than a minute on the clock; Scotland were matched at a low of [1.19] when looking in control during the second-half.

Despite this win, Italy are still stuck with that most unwanted of awards that is the wooden spoon, just edging out Scotland on points difference. Italy were matched at a high of [3.0] to finish bottom of the Six Nations pile, Scotland were matched at a low of [1.72].

Scotland will clearly be the happier of the two sides as they enter the contest on the back of recording a battling win over England at Murrayfield. However, it shouldn't be underestimated just how much heart Italy will have taken out of their improved showing in France last week. Now with home advantage, the Azzurri will fancy their chances of getting their first win of the campaign.

Both teams have key players missing from the squad and it will be the team that copes best with these changes that will come out on top. Whilst it will not be easy to replace the suspended Mauro Bergamasco I feel that the Italians have the look of a team determined not to go the tournament without a win. Backed by the passionate Italian fans I expect Italy to come out on top and highly recommend backing them in the Match Odds market at current odds of around [1.9].

The concern for all Scotland fans must be the team's inability to score tries. They have only managed one try in the four Six Nations games to date and to be frank rarely looked like scoring many more. They play a tight game and are almost entirely reliant on the fantastic goal kicking of Chris Paterson. This is not a formula for victory at International level...although some cynics would say England were not much different with Jonny Wilkinson.

Italy under Nick Mallett are heavily reliant upon their pack. They are a tough set of forwards and you can only envisage this game becoming one big arm wrestle. Do not expect open expansive rugby leading to a feast of tries. Only one of the last five meetings between these two sides has resulted in more than 34pts being scored and it is hard to see this game bucking the trend. The Total Match Points market has the line at 37.5pts and you cannot get away from backing Under 37.5pts

Since 2004 only once has a game between Italy and Scotland been won by more than eight points and you can expect a similar kind of result this weekend too. The Winning Margin market is very popular and offers the punter a variation on the Match Odds market. If you are looking for a slightly bigger price than the [1.9] about Italy in the Match Odds market then you may be tempted to support them in the Winning Margin market. It is hard to see Italy really running away with it and as such the Italy under 12.5pts runner is a must bet at current available odds of [2.82].

Italy need to win the game by five points or more to condemn Scotland to the Wooden Spoon and you can be sure that will be their aim. Scotland will attempt to drive upfield through their impressive forwards but of all the packs in the Six Nations the Italians really are the most fearsome. In Sergio Parisse Italy have probably the best player on show and if anybody deserves to be on a winning side it is the talented number eight. Parisse is currently dating Miss Europe and although I am predicting a win for the Azzurri on Saturday I feel it will be a long time before Italy will be crowned Kings of Europe.

ENGLAND CAN DRAW FIRST BLOOD

By Geoffrey Riddle

(Geoffrey uses www.statsonsport.com for his analysis)

Anyone who has a clue what is going in England coach Brian Ashton's head should stand up now. If anyone is standing up at their computer screen, please sit down now (you probably look rather silly), but sit down in the knowledge that you are in a very small minority in this country.
Ashton has dropped Jonny Wilkinson for the hyped-up Danny Cipriani for his side's dead rubber against Ireland at Twickenham. Fair enough, but bizarrely, it is the 61-year-old's only change to the team that performed so appallingly against Scotland last weekend at Murrayfield.

What is Ashton thinking? If he really wants to win this game convincingly, then surely he should put out his best side? If he wants to treat this match as a football friendly, by trying out some new players, then why is the precocious Cipriani the only change? Where is James Simpson-Daniel who he called up to the squad late last week? Why did he even do that?
Whichever way Ashton is thinking, he must know that Ireland will be a severe test for his side, who appear low on confidence. Ireland have won the last four run-ins with England and that record stretches to five from the eight Six Nations clashes. It is a meagre return for the Red Rose and there will be many Irish out there dreaming of a St Patrick's weekend triumph in Middlesex.

Ireland can be backed at [2.9] on Betfair to win the match, and considering England have failed this championship to put away Wales, Scotland, and Italy convincingly - against whom they were overwhelming favourites, it must be remembered - that doesn't look the worst value in the world.

Punters keen to take a view on the untried Cipriani can back the young Wasp in a points matchbet with Ireland stand-off Ronan O'Gara, who captains the visitors in the absence of Brian O'Driscoll, missing due to injury.

For those interested in this matchbet, Cipriani has kicked 38 of his 53 attempts at goal in the Premiership for Wasps this season but, as yet, the liquidity in this market is fairly minor at the time of writing.

Ireland have slowly shrugged off the turgid performances that characterised their World Cup last year, but they showed a real naivety in allowing Wales to get a win in Dublin last weekend.
O'Sullivan will have given his squad a lecture in being more streetwise for this contest and the Irish raiders will need to start well if they are to get the home side in a lather by worrying of another calamitous defeat.

The only obstacle to that tactic is that England are really rather good at opening the scoring at home. It seems to be one of the only things that they have been continuously good at since lifting the World Cup. There have been 11 Six Nations games at Twickenham since the start of the 2004 tournament and England have scored the first try in ten of them. Their record is not quite so impressive in November internationals, a record which stands at around a 60 per cent strike-rate, but it highlights the side's effectiveness in the opening exchanges.

This is a dead-rubber. We don't know how each team will play after pride-bruising defeats. England have a new fly-half in Cipriani, Ireland have a new captain in O'Gara. To me that sounds like betting suicide to have an investment on the outcome of this fixture. The only constant is England's record of scoring a try first, something which you can currently get [1.73] about on Betfair.

Last year's champions have experimented with a number of new players and focused on running the ball since the start of the tournament. They were far from perfect in a 25-13 win over Italy in Paris on Sunday with lots of errors in the line-out and scrum. France coach Marc Lievremont has recalled several experienced players including scrum half Jean-Baptiste Ellisaide and free scoring wing Vincent Clerc for the title showdown. He continues to chop and change his team haphazardly and Les Bleus captain Lionel Nallet admits it will be tough to get the result needed.

The lame surrender of France to England in Paris on 23 February 2008 has paralysed them and the hangover was evident last Sunday against Italy. Lievremont admitted to being relieved after the match - hardly oozing with confidence then? I don't believe that they will able to put all that behind them, let alone find a 20-point win!

They have to chase the game so I expect the French to be ambitious. They will dazzle early, off-loading and playing from their own 22 but this Welsh team are a different proposition now to the one that faced England, they will pick France off like 'grapes in a vineyard'. Wales will win the Grand Slam - that's official!

Wales have proved themselves capable of winning games under intense pressure under new coach Warren Gatland. They have the momentum, the heart, and have now adopted a smart tough mentality with the errors being reduced every game they play. Evidence of that is how they retained possession for long periods while being reduced to 14-men against the Irish. I was intrigued by the fact that Wales completed 147 passes to Ireland's 75 in Dublin. Quite remarkable! The Welsh are clearly improving at a rate of knots.

Gatland has pulled off the impressive feat of making huge improvements to the defensive part of his side's game without sacrificing the flair that defines Welsh rugby. The only two tries scored against them was a lineout throw error by Rees and a cross-field kick. He has since banished complacency and made them a proficient unit.

Mike Phillips will retain his place despite his crass stupidity in kneeing Ireland prop Marcus Horan in the back. The scrum-half went on to give a self-motivated performance in Ireland and hopefully he will have learned a lesson. He was man-of-the-match in defeat to France in Cardiff two years ago. Martyn Williams also keeps his place.

Despite Matthew Rees' improved throw-ins at the lineout he has made way for flu victim Huw Bennett. Gatland called the decision marginal but all and sundry remembers that awful delivery into the lineout.

Hook gets the number 10 shirt back from Jones. His attacking qualities whilst holding the ball against the reshuffled French will be the key to the game. There will be spaces. I suspect 'man of the series' Shane Williams will relish his inclusion and will be seeking to add to his 40 tries in just 55 games. He no longer gets turned over in the tackle and is still improving - he could be on the verge of true greatness.

The enigmatic Henson is aiming to make it 10 out 10 wins when he has started in a Six Nations game for Wales. His defensive qualities will be needed in this tense thriller and this should confirm his resurrection. He was brilliant against Ireland.

Once again the Welsh bench is strong and Jones, with his vast experience, will be available should Wales wish to close the game down in the last quarter.

Gatland seemed quietly confident during the week and for the first time mentioned winning the game and creating history! Current prices show Wales at [1.68] and France [2.56] with the draw at [38.0]. Whist envisaging a Wales victory those odds look a little cramped and one would have to confess that the value is France. Wales with a 12.5pt handicap are [2.76] and that looks good enough to me! Interestingly James Hook to score a try is [3.85]. Tries will and must be scored in this game so there could be lots of punting opportunities.

Some have suggested that France were too young and inexperienced but I disagree with any argument that in any way devalues England's win over Marc Lievremont's talented side. The France squad has been re-built to give youthful talent its head and, despite last week's defeat to England, the plan is working well with many young players rising to the occasion.

France have produced some stunning rugby of late particularly on the wings; coupled with their willingness to play out of their own 22, France have entertained us and racked up 66 points along the way.

England were able to blunt the sublime talents of Vincent Clerc and Co because their players adhered to a superior gameplan. England's forward line shut down key areas with some ferocious defending thereby cutting down the space available to the talented France backline.

The dilemma for France, (as they face an Italy team they should beat comfortably), is whether to overhaul team tactics or stick with the system and players that delivered impressive victories against Scotland and Ireland? For this week at least Lievremont will select the former option.
Three more players will make first starts for France including 19-year-old Bourgoin centre Yann David and in total there will be nine changes from the team that played England a fortnight ago. Lievremont will rest some key players and give vital experience to up-and-coming talent. Biarritz scrum-half Dimitri Yachvili is also set to start and is certainly no novice at this level so I expect his trusty boot to provide more variation and structure to France's attacking play.

During Italy's first two defeats to Ireland and England they relished the chance to dent the reputations of their lofty opponents. Unfortunately the only lasting impression they left on Wales can be seen around Lee Byrne's eye courtesy of Mauro Bergamasco.

New coach Nick Mallett will attempt to rediscover the same intensity that made life so uncomfortable for Ireland and England in this year's tournament. Nevertheless, on their home pitch France are huge favourites and you can back them to win at [1.06]. Italy will pin their hopes on the fact that their starting XV has much more experience but their preparations have been damaged by the 13-week ban handed down to Bergamasco.

The only time Italy defeated France was in 1997 an if you think that another upset is on the cards you can back Italy to win at [20.0] or the draw at [95.0]... just don't hold you breath waiting for a speedy return on your investment.

If Italy are to cause an upset then Andrea Massi will have to have a good game at no. 10. He certainly has requisite skills and if Italy's high octane start wins them good territory then the home side just might succumb to a bout of nerves in-front of a demanding home crowd.

If France start well things will look pretty grim for Italy and I expect the visitors to reprise the familiar role of plucky losers. I don't predict a Parisian massacre as the Gladiators of Rome are rarely faint of heart so, if you're looking for an outside bet, I'd back France to win by less than 12.5 points at [3.8].

Playing at a packed Croke Park, Ireland traded at a low of [1.23] when in front and Shane Horgan was stopped just short of line, after looking sure to score.

A wobbly looking Wales drifted to [7.0] at that point but Shane Williams managed to burst through the line to send Warren Gatland's team to a fourth straight victory.

Wales win's landed the Triple Crown which was backed at odds of [22.0]. They stay on course for Grand Slam glory having been backed at [44.0].

England's hapless display in Edinburgh will have caused their backers serious pain. Brian Ashton's men were backed at a low of [1.2] before turning in a lifeless performance to allow Scotland their first win of the tournament. The men from Murrayfield were backed at a high of [6.2].

England had been as low as [2.5] in the Six Nations winner market.

Here what he has to say here...

Wales have only won five of their last 21 matches against Ireland. They have been hammered during their last four appearances in Dublin where they have conceded 156 points and scoring a paltry 42.

It will be fascinating to see how the sacking of Gatland from Ireland in 2001 manifests itself. It was a day in which sneaky Eddie O'Sullivan did not cover himself in glory! Despite denials of the significance of it from both camps there is a lingering bitterness which will surely lead to a bit of aggro!

Ireland are [1.69] with Wales trading at [2.56]. The draw is [32]. I make the game closer than that with Wales the value. It is hard to win in Ireland but I could not take those short odds for the home win. The draw could easily come into play! It is that close. Wales with +4.5pts is [1.86] and Ireland with -4.5pts are [2.1]. Prices with Betfair.

The most intriguing and critical part of the match will be the confrontation between Stephen Jones and Ronan O'Gara. Wales will be dependent on the steadying influence and Jones' know-how to police and cancel out O'Gara's threat. The choice was control, decision-making and game management of Jones against Hook's more instinctive contributions. Gatland declared "If we don't keep a tight rein on Ronan O'Gara it could be a long day for us".

Jones has the talent and the attitude to lead from the front, he realises the importance of imposing himself. He played a prominent role in Wales' grand slam triumph of 2005 and was named fly-half of the championship scoring the majority of the points. He was restored to the starting line-up for the visit of Italy a fortnight ago after coming off the bench in the match against Scotland to steady the ship and steer Wales home to victory. He then gave an authoritative performance against Italy scoring 18 points in the process.

Stephen Jones (30) and James Hook (22) have been magnificent so far when sharing the fly-half job. Jones and Hook have successfully converted all 21 goalkick attempts in Wales' wins over England, Scotland and Italy. Hook scored 12 points as Wales eased past Scotland but Jones' impeccable display with the boot, kicking 18 points, inspired the Welsh to a record Six Nation's victory over Italy.

I understand Gatland's dilemma. Despite Hook being man-of-the-match against England the coach emphasised the need for him to make some noise and impose himself with this team-mates. Gatland is acutely aware of his immense ability but wants him to strengthen and toughen up mentally before he becomes world class as he has everything else! His goalkicking is faultless, his movement and distribution slick and he is tactically sound for his young years. All Blacks coach Steve Hansen says New Zealand put Wales starlet James Hook in the same category as Dan Carter. Praise indeed!

I noted only muted noises in Wales when Jones was given the nod over star pupil Hook. Is it possible that Wales are beginning to accept the collective team ethic - surely not?

The other player to impress so far is Gavin Henson. He has been doing his job brilliantly. Looking mature and showing some lovely touches he has excelled defensively and been exceptionally influential. He has grasped what the pragmatic Warren Gatland expects and it could be possible he is on his way back to realising his potential.

Tom Shanklin has also made an impression and Alun Wyn Jones did well against England. He is back for the Ireland game - could he be the next Lions lock? The player on top of his game at the moment is Shane Williams, he looks fit and sharp as a razor. I am convinced he will score at some point in the game but it is going to be a close one, that's for sure!

Scotland [5.8] v England [1.23] Draw [42.0]

Scotland are two from four at Murrayfield against England in the Six Nations, and in the eyes of the more optimistic punter, the [5.9] on offer about Frank Hadden's men beating England in Edinburgh may look value.

Duncan Hodge's 74th-minute try for the Scots in 2000 capped a glorious performance by the fly-half and lead to the 19-13 victory that extinguished England's hopes of a Grand Slam. That one-man show was mimicked by Chris Paterson in 2006, when his dead-eyed kicking inspired the Scots to an 18-12 success under Hadden.

The problem for Scottish fans this year is that there is no Grand Slam denying to be done. Also, where their team had beaten France 20-16 in Edinburgh prior to that famous victory over the Auld Enemy two years ago, Hadden's squad got a complete mauling at the hands of Marc Liveremont's new-look French side in round one.

That 26-7 defeat has pretty much set the tone for Scotland's challenge this year and their price to finish bottom has dwindled from being matched at as high as [5.6] to a more sober -looking [2.28].

The team have looked nervous and they lack any composure and confidence. They are by far and away the most frustrating team in the Championship to watch, not least because they can't score tries. Duck-eggs litter their tries-for column, and since Hadden took over from beleaguered coach Matt Williams, Scotland have failed to cross the whitewash in a third of their games.

Scotland average 15 points per game at Murrayfield when playing against teams who were ranked higher in the IRB World Rankings and it is frightening how much they depend on Paterson for points.

Since the start of the 2004 Six Nations, the Gloucester pivot has played 37 matches for Scotland where he was the sole kicker. He has scored 51 per cent of his side's points in those matches, which is not particularly surprising, but when you consider that he has scored 65 per cent of his side's points in just those Six Nations matches, you start to wonder that he isn't targeted more often by the opposition.

Paterson has been the most accurate kicker in the world for about the last three years and without him, Scotland are dead in the water.

England cross the border with the wind in their sails, having soundly beaten France through a mixture of dominant forward play, an astute realisation of how to defend against the new-look Les Bleus and Jonny Wilkinson making the right decisions at the right time.

Confidence will not be lacking in the tightly-knit squad, even if Danny Cipriani has been dropped for inappropriate behaviour, and it was interesting to see in Paris that England had finally learned to use the considerable bulk of Lesley Vainikolo. The beaded warrior started to come off his wing with devastating effect in the latter stages of that clash and if he does so here, Scottish centre Graeme Morrison, who starts his first international for almost four years, could be in for a rude awakening.

Put it down to over-confidence, arrogance, or just the heroic performances of a select few hosts, but England have often struggled to break down sides that they have been over-whelming favorites to beat on the road. It's not as if they have got out of that habit either, as Italy's roaring comeback in Rome in round two testifies.

England were sensational in the first half against Wales, decent in the first 40 against Italy and the building blocks of that 24-13 win in the Stade de France were put down before the break as well.

England look vulnerable in the second half against teams who can exploit weakness, but once more, Scotland do not have that attribute in what is looking like a very empty armoury indeed. Excluding the games against Romania in 2006 and Samoa in 2005, Scotland have scored more points in the second half than the first in only three of the 12 games at Murryafield under Hadden. A stirring rearguard action after a thumping half-time team-talk looks highly unlikely from the home side therefore, and it seems that all Brian Ashton's squad have to do is get their nose in front early to beat the handicap of -8.5 points.