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Heineken Cup Final Betting: Panache of Toulouse vs grit of Munster

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Geoffrey Riddle crunches the stats and considers the crucial factors that may affect your betting as Toulouse and Munster clash in the Heineken Cup Final on Saturday

Munster [1.98] v Toulouse [2.14] Draw [23]

The pizzaz and panache of cup kings Toulouse is pitted against the never-say-die pragmatism of Munster in Saturday's Ying-Yang Heineken Cup final in Cardiff. It is a clash that scales the heights of our expectation both as rugby fans and punters, and surely the ERC have made the right choice in electing to close the roof in the hope of making this a real spectacle.

Both sides have this competition coursing through their veins, not least Munster, who have reached the knockout rounds for the ninth time in succession. Not to be outdone, however, Toulouse start their fifth final, and if it wasn't for the sheer audacity of Wasps' Rob Howley in the dying seconds of the 2004 showpiece at Twickenham, the French aristocrats of rugby would probably be pitching up in the Welsh capital with four wins in as many finals.

Howley robbed Toulouse of what was rightfully their fourth Heineken Cup that day, and whatever you read about the determination of marvellous Munster - you'd hear Eddie Butler wax lyrical about them all day if he was commentating - Toulouse will lack none of their rival's fight.
Many Betfair traders will be put off backing Toulouse on account of their, well, Frenchness.

French teams have a dangerous reputation of being sorry travellers to these shores, but if you look at both teams' records on away trips in the Heineken Cup, that simply doesn't add up.
Munster have won exactly half of their road fixtures in Europe's premier competition, but Toulouse actually shade it having won 26 of their 44 away games. Guy Noves' men have been the best squad on the road in the Top 14 this season too, winning seven of their 13 matches away from the Pink City.

For all Munster's grit at the coal-face, this match will be their first since the 21-18 defeat at home to Glasgow Warriors on the last day of the Magners League two weeks ago. They will be rested, true. But for a sport that demands your body on the line, they will be softer. Rugby has often shown up teams that believed a good break would do them good, but you only have to look at Wasps' mugging of Leicester last year after a 22-day layoff to see that it works the other way round if the time is spent wisely.

Neither side is going to give up points easily, and the 12 Heineken Cup finals to date have yielded just 437 points (an average of 36.4 a game), which makes it understandable that Betfair have pitched total points at over/under 37.5. In their four finals, Toulouse scored between 18 to 22 points in each game. If the handicaps and match betting are to be believed, it either means that Munster will have to score around 20-24 points in order to confirm their narrow favouritism, or that Toulouse will score less than they have in the past, and the Irishmen will eclipse them in a low-scoring encounter.

Toulouse boast the second-best defence in the Top 14, leaking just 284 points, including 23 tries, in their 22 games (12.9 points per game and 1.045 tries per game), and although only the Ospreys let in fewer points in the Magners League than Munster, the Irishmen's heroics in defence can be best seen in their efforts in the Pool stages. They let in just 95 points, including six tries, in six games against free-scoring Wasps and Clermont and disappointing Llanelli and just six tries.

Where Toulouse clearly outpoint Munster, however, is in attack. Sure, Munster have the deadly finishing talent of Doug Howlett and the robust passion of centre pairing Rua Tipoki and Lifiemi Mafi, but in the creative stakes, the Frenchmen are all over their rivals. The half-back pairing of Byron Kelleher and Jean-Baptiste Elissalde is cheeky, and the ghostly presence of Yannick Jauzion and bulky Maleli Kunavore provide the ultimate rapier and bludgeon combination. But it is the back-three of Cedric Heymans, Maxime Medard and Yves Donguy that looks lethal.

All three have exceptional scoring records, with Medard touching down 11 times from 18 starts in the Top 14, Donguy scoring twice from 176 minutes of Heineken Cup rugby and Heymans chipping in with six tries this campaign. It may also pay to know that Elissalde likes a drop goal. He has seven in the Top 14, with six in two games, and he has also dropped two in this competition.

From a personal point of view, I struggle to see how Munster are favourites. Perhaps it is because Toulouse have been slow starters in their recent matches and with a hint of a lead, Munster may be hard to peg back. For me though, Toulouse's greatest strength is their adaptability, and because they can play it tight, fast or loose, it gives them a massive advantage. I

'm angling for better than the 2.4 currently available about a French victory by 1-12 points. Some may consider that because the arm-wrestle takes place in Cardiff, Munster's travelling army will swamp the Millennium Stadium. If support was the deciding factor in a rugby match though, London Irish would surely win the Premiership every year?