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Heineken Cup champions Wasps get stung by seedings fiasco

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The Racing Post's Geoffrey Riddle gives us the lowdown on this year's Heineken Cup

It hasn't even been three weeks since South Africa became world champions and the greatest club tournament in the world is upon us. Rugby punters barely have had enough time to go on holiday since the six-week punt-athon before they must raid their war chests once more and swing back into action.

This is the 13th tournament and still the organisers have not got everything right, what with the seeding system being a total shambles. Reigning champions Wasps have found themselves in the sort of pickle that Branston would be proud of having been lumped in Pool 5 with former champions Munster, Llanelli, who have reached the knock-out stages eight times, and European Challenge Cup champions Clermont, who also finished second in the French League last year.

Wasps are marginal favourites to win the group (3.4) but the Irish province is only just behind (3.5). These two clash first up this weekend, but surely coach Ian McGeechan has made a serious error by allowing the game to take place at the Ricoh Arena in Coventry.

Wasps are unbeaten in their last eight matches at home in this competition, while the Munstermen have won SEVEN of their last EIGHT on the road in the European Cup. It's a massive advantage for the Londoners to have given up, and the accountants could rue their decision come May if they lose out on knock-out stage revenue.

Due to the nature of the tournament, the two best runners-up progress out of the group stages along with the six Pool winners which most likely leaves whoever finishes second in Pool 5 as first loser.

Last year's finalists Leicester are a 9.6 chance and they too face a stern challenge from Toulouse in Pool 6. The French side have lost their mercurial fly-half Freddie Michalak but they have started the best of the traditional teams in the Top 14 this season winning their first two matches which includes a stunning 28-6 thrashing of Stade Francais last week. They vie for favouritism to top the section ( 2.54) and the double-header with the Tigers (2.26) in mid-December will be pivotal.

Both Biarritz and Stade Francais look to have charmed sections and both head the outright market because of this. Stade are favourites (4.2) while the Basques sit second in the betting ( 6.6). The big question for punters will be whether the favourites play Argentinean Juan Martin Hernandez at fly-half now he has proved to the world that he is capable of such a role. The fact that France's two fly-halves, Lionel Beauxis and David Skrela also play for the capital men makes things that bit harder for coach Fabien Galthie.

It has been a while since Biarritz set this tournament alight given their turgid displays in the knock-out stages over the last two years and it said it all when relegated Northampton beat them 7-6 in the quarter-finals last year.

Pool-rivals Saracens have been playing with real purpose in the Premiership this season and we still await the arrival of All Black Chris Jack. Alan Gaffney's side host Glasgow this weekend and after that they play Biarritz away before having a double-header against Viadana.

There is no question which team is playing the better rugby at the moment, and if Sarries can keep their momentum going, there may be value in the 3.65 about them winning the Pool group. The 26 about them taking the tournament could also be very tradeable.

In my book, Gloucester are rightly favourites to win Pool 2 (1.92) as they face under-performing Ulster (10.0) at precisely the right time. The Cherry and Whites have shown no sign of wilting through autumn and the current Premiership table-toppers go to Ravenhill this weekend safe in the knowledge that their opposition were soundly beaten by Glasgow last weekend.

The Ospreys are second-favourites for the section (2.6) and although they have an impressive array of talent in their ranks, Gloucester have the better squad and perhaps crucially, host the Welsh region first. Gloucester's price looks likely to contract this year.

Perpignan look a shoo-in for Pool 1 and explains their current price in the outright market (11.5) and all in, against London Irish (4.6), the Dragons ( 9.6) and whipping boys Treviso (100), I'd rather be backing Perpignan at 1.36 than Biarritz at a similar price.

But who will join them in the quarters? In my humble opinion, I'd say Gloucester, Stade Francais, Saracens, Biarritz, Toulouse, Wasps and perhaps London Irish.

To read more about the Heineken Cup:

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/3_122.php