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Heineken Cup Betting: Under 39.5 points is the best bet as Munster visit Saracens

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Geoffrey Riddle thinks the match odds prices on Betfair are about right for this one so prefers to look elsewhere, starting with the total points market

Saracens [4.1] v Munster [1.36] Draw [32]

This will be Munster's tenth consecutive year in the knockout stages of the Heineken Cup and Saracens' first, which highlights in itself what a mountain the English team have to climb if they are to justify their quotes of around [4.1].

Although the Ricoh Arena may be considered a home game for Sarries, that perceived advantage may not be what coach Alan Gaffney should place his hopes on this weekend. Anyone who saw the Irish province go down by a single point there to Wasps in the opening round of this year's tournament, will know that Coventry will hold no fears for the formidable Munstermen.

Munster once again proved how good they can be away from the Emerald Isle when they trounced Premiership league leaders Gloucester 16-3 in the last round at Kingsholm.
All in, Munster have played 15 knockout matches away from Thomond Park and won seven of them, which is a fair return in Europe's premier competition.

If you look at those fixtures as a whole though, it is interesting to see that total points average a mere 34.5, with just three matches throwing up more than 40 points. It is a stark set of figures, and one that should see Betfair punters trade a furious amount come match time on the total points market that has been set at over/under 39.5.

Munster travel to the Midlands having failed to cross the tryline in their last two matches. They were comprehensively outpointed by Leinster 21-12 at the Royal Dublin Society two weeks ago, and their B team scraped past the Ospreys 9-8 last week. They have managed just three tries in their last four games.

Despite their obvious class, Munster are clearly not playing at their best at the moment and they are so short at [1.36] purely because Saracens have been pretty poor of late.

Sarries have been a mystery since their form crumbled at the beginning of February. Prior to that month, Alan Gaffney's side had won six from their last eight games, which included the 45-16 thrashing of traditional French powerhouse Biarritz.

Since then, we now look at a team that has won just four from 11. They were horrible last week against Wasps, conceding five tries in the first 40 minutes before finally going down 40-29. Perhaps it was the pink shirts they were forced to wear in aid of Breast Cancer Care, or perhaps it is something deeper than that, something which also saw them get beat 39-15 the week before by Gloucester.

The battling 19-10 victory over the Ospreys in the quarter-final earlier this month, showed that Sarries do have the class to take a big scalp when everything clicks, but would you really be able to persuade your bank manager that the Men in Black were a sound investment?

Saracens are pinning their hopes on the return of Richard Hill in the back-row, a man that can barely walk. Hill is undoubtedly one of the greatest back-row forwards of his generation, but surely it is too much to ask of the great man to orchestrate a win for his side.

Although I consider Munster slightly too short, the way Sarries have been playing recently does not allow enough room to lay the Irishmen in-running. As already mentioned, Wasps put five tries past Saracens in the first half, Gloucester scored two tries inside 18 minutes against them two weeks ago, and even James Hook opened the scoring for the Ospreys.

Quite simply, with neither side really offering any value, the best trade of the match could be to get low of points at 39.5. The stats show that it should be a low-scoring affair, and with Munster struggling to cross the whitewash, and Sarries in Jekyll and Hyde mode, it looks the safest play of the tie.