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Heineken Cup Betting: Beware of London Irish who have nothing Toulouse

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Geoffrey Riddle tells us why English team's record against French teams on home soil and injuries to the likes of Vincent Clerc have convinced him to be on the Irish +6.5 handicap

The Heineken Cup has lost none of its gloss with the inclusion of semi-final debutants London Irish and Saracens, and their matches against Toulouse (Sat) and Munster (Sun) respectively are eagerly anticipated by punters and rugby fans alike.

Both English sides have been rated underdogs by bookmakers and Betfair traders, and if the stats have any bearing at all, it is for good reason.

If you look at the first half of Heineken Cup history from 1995 to 2001, there were 32 victories in the knockout stages for teams playing at home, or in a stadium in their particular country, from 40 such matches. In the latter half of the tournament from 2002, there were just 18 "home" wins from 36 such fixtures.

Home advantage is clearly not what it used to be in the Heineken Cup therefore, and punters have a fair conundrum in working out if both Heineken Cup veterans Toulouse and Munster merit their short prices for victory.

Irish [3.35] v Toulouse [1.46] Draw [30]

Momentum can be a very important commodity in rugby union. Obviously in the micro sense it is crucial, as it allows someone like hulking Toulouse flanker Finau Maka to smash through a tackle, but in a macro sense, it could allow a team like London Irish their day of glory against a side like three-times Heineken Cup kings Toulouse.

Since January Irish coach Brian Smith has quietly been going about his business down in Reading, and yet very few people have noticed that the Exiles have won 11 of their 14 matches this year.

They went through a bit of a wobble in March when three tough games on the bounce against Gloucester (a), Wasps (h) and Bath (a) saw them get turned over consecutively, but other than that, it has been plain sailing. And it is not as if Bath and Wasps really had it their own way anyway. Wasps came away from the Madejski Stadium with a 22-16 win, and Bath had to work very hard to sneak a 19-16 victory at The Rec.

Those three teams are the best that England has to offer right now, and although Toulouse currently inhabit second spot in the French Top 14, it is not the strongest side that coach Guy Noves has ever brought to these shores.

Last weekend, Toulouse had the stuffing knocked out of them by new-kids on the block Clermont. The Auvergnats came to Le Stadium in the centre of Toulouse, and taught Les Toulousains a proper lesson; knocking out Thierry Dusatoir in the third minute, watching winger Vincent Clerc go off on a stretcher having snapped a cruciate ligament, and finally coming away with a 23-11 road win.

It was a chastening experience for Toulouse, and one which has put a serious dent in their confidence. Dusatoir and Clerc are two key losses, but Noves' unavailable list reads like a who's who of world rugby: Jean-Baptiste Poux, Gaffie Du Toit, Florian Fritz, Clement Poitrenaud, Yannick Jauzion and Valentin Courrent.

English teams have won around 70% of their skirmishes with French sides over here in the Heineken Cup and five from seven in the knockout stages. Toulouse were the most recent French team to beat an English side on their own turf, beating Leicester 27-19 at the Walkers Stadium in 2005.

It was an incredible performance that day, not least because the Leicester side contained Martin Johnson and Neil Back, and it still remains the biggest winning margin by any Toulouse side in a knockout Heineken Cup match away from France.

It will be an interesting to see how both sides approach this Twickenham clash. Toulouse have scored the second-most tries of any team in their league with 52 from their 18 fixtures, while they also have the second-best defence in the Top 14 having let in 18, two more than miserly Biarritz. In contrast, London Irish have scored the third-least tries in the Premiership with 34 in 20 matches.

Most punters will take a look at the names of Toulouse's two wingers, Yves Donguy and Maxime Medard, and not have a clue who they are. That would be a mistake however, as Medard has scored a try every other game in the Top 14 this season.

The visitors have every right to be favourites for this fixture, given what they have achieved both in their domestic league, and this season's Heineken Cup. But the core of the XV that achieved all of that are unlikely to take to the field this weekend.

London Irish are playing to the best of their ability at the moment and if Mike Catt makes the line-up, the wily old centre can pull the strings and see his side put in a massive performance. Betfair offer a 6.5-point start for the Exiles, which looks good enough for me.