Betfair Official Blog

Cardiff odds-on to give Stade Francais the Blues

Click here to view market

The Racing Post's Geoffrey Riddle talks us through the betting on the three biggest Heineken Cup matches this weekend

Heineken Cup Round Four

By Geoffrey Riddle

[5.3] Ulster v [1.27] Ospreys [32] draw

Ravenhill used to be a fortress which Ulster could retreat to in times of need. Thumping wins over the likes of Leicester and Toulouse must be looked at in a light of the long-distant past such is the discord affecting the region right now. Take the Ospreys to soar over the crumbling ramparts in the first live Heineken Cup tussle of the weekend.

The Welsh side completely dismantled the Irishmen last week and the 48-17 scoreline hardly does justice to the Ospreys' supremacy in that game.

Stand-in Ulster coach Steve Williams has been given a devilish job in trying to re-surface his team, but it seems that he has resigned his side to sinking without a trace in this competition after making six changes - for the worse - for this encounter.

Gone from the starting line-up are international half-back pair of Isaac Boss, who scored a try last week, and Paddy Wallace. Former Ireland prop Justin Fitzpatrick also skips the starting XV.

It's a curious decision to field such a line-up and Williams was keen to point out on Thursday that it was down to potential fatigue. He said of the omission of Fitzpatrick, "I just felt he deserved a weekend off to recharge his batteries." That says everything about the mindset of Ulster on the eve of a huge European encounter.

Ulster's last three losses in Belfast in the Heineken Cup (Gloucester, Llanelli and Biarritz) have all been by at least 16 points and with the weather set to be clear, the Ospreys look a fair bet at 1.91 to cover the handicap of 12.5 points.

[1.92] Cardiff v Evens Stade Francais [21] draw

It's odd to think that bully boys Stade Francais wear those distinctly winsome pink jerseys. The dominant force in French rugby at the moment have remained unbeaten for 50-odd matches at Stade Jean Bouin, and yet they have been downed the last four times they have travelled to England. They have also failed to win in five of their six journeys to Wales. That doesn't bode well for their chance of wrestling Cardiff to the ground at the Arms Park, then.

The problem for punters who rely on statistics to illuminate their betting, is that Cardiff are the only Welsh team to have succumbed to the pink hordes in the principality.

The Blues lost 38-15 to Stade Francais in October 2004 when Cardiff went on to finish ninth in the Celtic League. That season, their more glamorous rivals finished second in the French League and lost narrowly to Munster in the Heineken Cup quarter-final at Thomond Park.

The French were themselves coerced into defeat by Bristol in round two and the fact that they were nilled by the West Country boys only highlights the chance presented to Dai Young's team.

It was an error-ridden performance by both sides in difficult conditions last week in Paris. The 12-6 scoreline in the Parisian's favour serves as further incentive to the Welsh side's dreams in the reverse fixture with home advantage.

The wind and the rain clearly made life hard for Stade Francais last week and their free-flowing approach mimicked Toulouse's inability to adapt to the conditions 24 hours earlier in Leicester.

Saturday is set to be cloudy, but no more, and Cardiff can see it as bread from heaven that the absence of rain will not turn this into an arm wrestle between the two packs.

All in, Cardiff should be marginal favourites for this contest - French teams average a two-point loss in Wales in the Heineken Cup - and with Cardiff flying high in the Magners League right now, this presents a golden opportunity for them.

[1.29] Toulouse v [3.3] Leicester, [21] draw

Toulouse have a near-impeccable record at the Stade Ernest Wallon, with only two defeats there in 29 European encounters, which includes when it was known as Les Sept Derniers.

Leicester were one of those successful teams, but Toulouse have taken the money-making route favoured by the bigger sides in the Heineken Cup, and have set up the fixture in the city's football stadium, Stade Municipal.

On the face of it, the record of Les Toulousains there is worse with just nine wins from 14, but eight of those ties were in the knock-out stage. Two of their defeats at the football ground came to English teams Bath and Saracens, but to be fair, those losses were back in 2000. Since then, eight English teams have gone to the Pink City and been beaten, and Leicester will have to put in a big performance if they are to stay in touch.

Surprisingly, the Tigers were out-muscled by Leinster in round one (they lost 22-9), which was largely down to Leicester old boys Leo Cullen and Shane Jennings galvanising the Irish province. New coach Marcelo Loffreda will be mindful of this, and there was a steeliness to Leicester's play when he took the reins and led them to an impressive 39-0 defeat of Edinburgh at Welford Road.

But can they front up in France? Leicester's record over the Channel is P14, W8 L6 with an average scoreline of 22-21. That's pretty tight, and there may be some who fancy the 2.88 about the Tigers' raiding party in-running. Those odds equate to something like a seven-point handicap, but when Leicester lose in France, they tend to do so in some style. Only Stade Francais have beaten them by a single-figure margin, while the other five defeats in France have been by 15 (Biarritz), 11 and 22 (Stade Francais), 17 (Pau), 19 (Brive). It's something to bear in mind if you fancy the home side.

To read more about the Heineken Cup go to:

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/