Winner takes it all, loser takes the fall

World Cup / Editor / 29 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Rugby experts Chicken Dinner preview Scotland's clash with Italy

Scotland vs Italy, Rugby World Cup, Saturday September 29, Pool C, St-Etienne
Italy +2.5 points

Current IRB world rankings, as of September 24: Italy 9, Scotland 10

Even though Italy are ranked one place higher than Scotland, the Scots are making far more efficient progress up the World Cup mountain and are confident their superior bulk will be enough to push the Italians over the edge when the path narrows this weekend. Winner goes to Paris to meet France, Argentina or Ireland, loser goes home in tears.

Besides their touching faith in their fancy physiques, Scotland would also point to the fact that they have beaten both Romania and Portugal by considerably more points than Italy did (Italy could only manage to beat Romania 24-18, for instance, while Scotland showed them how to do it, 42-0). Scotland also showed greater resistance when folding to New Zealand. But in this particular shoving contest, Scotland are not expected to prevail with ease - a handicap of just 2.5 points suggests Italy don't need too much help standing up to the Scots. So excellent news for the spectator - nothing like two desperate sides clawing at each others' faces for survival - but a tougher challenge for the punter, as outside of this World Cup, neither Scotland nor Italy have shown much enthusiasm for winning recently.

While Scotland have won more games between the two (8 to 4), Italy won the last encounter in this year's Six Nations by the second greatest margin in Italy/Scotland history (37-17). Only Scotland's 47-15 win in the last World Cup was more convincing. Italy will also be cheered that they are still in contention to progress at this last pool game stage of the World Cup. Beside the 'mare they had in 1999, when they lost all their games, Italy have always come to the last round robin game only to run up against an unbeatable team, or go through the motions in a meaningless stroll against a minnow. They have never played a quarter final. Scotland have a good record in crunch World Cup pool games - they beat Ireland in their last game in 1991 to win the group, and snuck past Fiji 22-20 in 2003 to qualify for the quarter finals.

While Italy have been on an aggressive learning curve in recent years though, Scotland seem to have been trying to forget what they ever knew about how to play rugby, and their form over the last couple of years is so bad it could even be confused with England's: lost to South Africa, beat Ireland, lost to France, lost to Ireland, lost to Italy, beat Wales, lost to England, lost to Australia, beat Romania, lost to South Africa, lost to South Africa again...It's not been a good year for the highlight reel. Their main consolation (besides their delight at England's slapstick sideshow) is that Italy have been losing all over the world too.
Only one game in this World Cup has ended by a margin narrower than 2.5 points - Japan's draw with Canada - which makes the idea that Scotland might win but not cover seem unlikely.

However, every World Cup with the exception of 1999 has had at least one pool game settled by just one or two points; 2003 had four. So this World Cup is due one. It would be appropriate that a fight to the death should be close, nasty and heartbreaking. Those already in the market, however, think otherwise. You can get Italy +2.5 points on betfair at 2.58, Scotland -2.5 points on betfair at 1.59