Which two will be there on the final day?

World Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 27 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

The Racing Post's Geoffrey Riddle tells us which two sides he expects to be contesting the final

There is the conspiracy theory that New Zealand suffered food poisoning before the 1995 World Cup final against South Africa which they lost 15-12 to an extra-time Joel Stransky drop-goal. Kiwis around the globe forget though, that their team were just unlucky to lose to a side that were so pumped up for a fixture that was made politically charged by Nelson Mandela's magnificent gesture of wearing the Springbok jersey. And the fact that it was a home fixture for the Springboks. It's not as if Kitch Cristie's side were slouches either.

Betfair punters have quite rightly made New Zealand 2.44 favourites to avenge their 1995 World Cup final defeat in the straight forecast market, and given the respective form of the two teams, it is also a very difficult price to lay.

New Zealand are currently ranked the best side in the world, and their form since the last World Cup stands up to the closest inspection. Prior to the 2003 renewal, Sir Clive Woodward's England had played 40 matches since the 1999 World Cup and only lost five. Graham Henry's New Zealand had similar form coming into this tournament having played 42 also losing five - all of which were away from the Land of the Long White Cloud.

If you look at the All Blacks' away form before they came to France, they had the best win percentage of any team in the world at 76 per cent. This will stand them in good stead against whoever turns up from Pool D in Cardiff next weekend to face the Haka.

The only two teams to have beaten Henry's squad since the last World Cup are Australia and South Africa, and both have a charmed passage through to the semis. All things considered, New Zealand will face Australia, and this is where it gets interesting. New Zealand have never beaten the Wallabies in a World Cup match. If Australia get through that crunch fixture, Betfair traders have all sorts of possibilities of backing to lay.

You can back South Africa to beat Australia in the final at 12.5, and it's 17.5 the other way around. If you think that it is too much for John Connolly's men, especially since the untested, but brilliant, Berrick Barnes has slotted in at fly-half in place of the injured Stephen Larkham, perhaps it may pay to look at the other side of the draw for a touch of value.
From a personal point of view, I fancy Argentina to win Pool D and subsequently sail through to the semi-finals at the expense of either Scotland or Italy. Now Argentina had the second best road form in the competition before the whole jamboree kicked-off in France. When you consider that 15 of their squad ply their trade in the host country, you have a compelling case for believing that the Pumas will treat their semi-final as a home game.

Some may consider it a bridge too far for Marcello Loffreda's squad to actually beat the Springboks, but if you get on early, there must be some mileage in trading the 13.5 about New Zealand beating Argentina in the final.

France looked a bundle of nerves against Argentina in the tournament opener and some may feel that their best chance of beating the All Blacks is to play in Cardiff away from the pressure of their own media, and the glare of their notoriously fickle fans. France have suffered numerous thrashings at the hands of the All Blacks at home recently to believe this line of thought is not as crazy as it sounds. With that in mind there may be those who fancy the 25.0 about the hosts beating South Africa in Paris, or who knows, even a repeat of the tournament curtain-raiser?