Weather likely to play a big part in today's matches

World Cup / Editor / 29 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Betfair's rugby expert Tony Calvin tells us why the big guns may struggle to cover their big handicaps this afternoon

WEATHER may well be the key to some of the guns covering big handicaps this afternoon, so it is well worth tuning in to ITV at 11.30am to check out the conditions.

First up today are New Zealand, who Betfair ask to cover a 72.5 point handicap - without their chief playmaker Dan Carter.

So it is no surprise that all the money has been for the Romanians on this line this morning, and the current price of 2.02 will get shorter should it be raining come game time at midday.

New Zealand play their nominal second string side today but any team with Rokocoko and Sivivatu on the wings is a frightening proposition.

But Romania are a solid enough team, losing by 42 to Scotland but only six to Italy, and beating Portugal 14-10 earlier in the week.

They are the bet with the start, though I would look to trade out at around the 50 minute mark should they have kept New Zealand to a margin of 40 points by then.

Australia-Canada are next up and the Canucks have really disappointed me in this tournament. Ever since they led 17-9 in the second half against Wales, they have let their game slip.

They ended up losing 42-17 to Wales, 29-16 to Fiji (though they can be considered a touch unfortunate there) and were the first 1.01 loser of the tournament when Japan scored a 84th-minute leveler against them on Tuesday, the match ending 12-12.

But they have the pack to front up against the Wallabies, who have picked second-stringers Sam Cordingley and Julian Huxley to direct affairs from half-back.

Australia won't want to get bogged down into a forward battle, but the Canadians will look to slow the pace and bash away at every opportunity. So Canada +48 elsewhere and at 2.14 +43.5 on Betfair get the marginal call.

Wales could well be a decent trading lay at 1.1 in the match odds market against Fiji today.

The Welsh haven't totally impressed or convinced in this tournament, including in a 72-18 defeat of Japan, but this is conceivably an ideal match for them in that it will probably be fast and loose.

But a virtual second XV saw Fiji give Australia a game in a 55-12 defeat (that flattered the Wallabies) and they wheel back some of their big guns for Wales, and the 22 point they are afforded too elsewhere - they are 1.57 on Betfair's +24.5 line - is probably too generous.

A manic day of live rugby action - Sky also screen Gloucester-Worcester at 6pm, and the away side interest me with a 18-point start there - is rounded off by the crunch Scotland-Italy game at 8pm.

If you would have told me at the start of the tournament that Italy would have been 3.55 to win this match, I would have laughed you out of town.

But the loss of skipper Marco Bortolami and their poor form in this tournament - they only beat Romania by six point and Portugal by 26 - is a real worry.

But whether or not you can back a Scotland side at 1.43 is another matter altogether. They have certainly looked the better side in this tournament but recent matches between these suggest that is far from a tempting price. They lost 37-17 to Italy at Murrayfield in the Six Nations (a bizarre match, I grant you) and their other three matches since 2004 have seen an Italy win by six points and Scotland scraping home by 8 and 3 in the other two.

As a starting trade, Italy at 3.55 will be my bet.