Team selection is crucial to Ireland's early pool games

World Cup / Editor / 30 August 2007 / Leave a Comment

John McDermott of the Evening Echo, Ireland, on the Emerald Isle's early fixtures

After the dizzy heights of beating England at Croke Park in the Six Nations, the Irish were touted by many as potential RWC winners. Well, in the last few weeks that bubble has been burst with stuttering performances against Scotland and Bayonne and then last Friday evenings' robbery of Italy.

Eddie O'Sullivan says we aren't that far away from getting things together but unfortunately we aren't that far away from the Rugby World Cup starting either. One huge advantage we have is the fixture list whereby we can - hopefully - ease ourselves into the tournament with matches against Namibia and Georgia before the crunch ties against France and Argentina.

Ireland are currently trading at 29 for the tournament on Betfair, which looks to be the biggest price on offer across the various betting sites. With over €340k having been traded on Ireland to date, there is apparent confidence that we have the ability to do the job. But with recent lacklustre performances the prices being offered have steadily increased. Ireland have been matched as low as 10 and as high as 38 but their current price looks about right to me.

Backing Ireland to win the tournament is pie in the sky at present. If we were to win then I believe we would have to win Pool D by beating France and Argentina and so avoid the All Blacks in the quarter-final. And it takes a leap of faith to believe we can do that at present. France have looked very sharp in their warm-up games and the two times we have met in previous World Cups we have been stuffed.

So for me betting on Ireland to win outright isn't on, unless you think that we will trade significantly lower after what should be two opening pool game victories - I don't.

Handicap lines in those opening pool games are more interesting though. On September 9th, we take on Namibia in Bordeaux. We also met in the last World Cup Pool stage with Ireland winning that match 64 - 7. The handicap market available on Betfair gives Namibia +58 points.
So, would you bet on Ireland beating Namibia by more than 58 points? It really depends on what type of team we put out. As can be seen from our recent performance against Scotland, the second string team are well short of our premier outfit. It's likely that Eddie O'Sullivan will put out a mixed team - so keep an eye on team selection for a bet in this market. Should he opt for more of the second string then I would go for an Ireland win by less that 58 points.

The same logic can be used for the Georgia match. The handicap for this match is Georgia +52.5. If Eddie decided to put out a below strength team against the Georgians then I would again lay Ireland (-52.5). The Georgians will be big and strong up front and it could turn into a dour affair giving this bet a real chance of coming in. Again money will flow into this market in the days prior to the game and especially when the Ireland team is announced.