James and the giant Fijians

World Cup / Editor / 27 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Betting experts Chicken Dinner look ahead to Wales' match against Fiji on Saturday

Wales vs Fiji, Rugby World Cup, Saturday September 29, Pool B, Nantes
Fiji +24.5 points

Current IRB world rankings, as of September 24: Wales 8, Fiji 11

For such big lads, the Welsh rugby team hasn't dealt too well with the weight of expectation since the inception of the World Cup in 1987. None of the home nations has a more intense relationship with its rugby XV than Wales, but for all its lion-heartedness, it has never really worked out an efficient technique for carrying the country's hopes very far. Barring the greatest miracle ever witnessed in the world of rugby, Wales are not going to be winning this tournament, so other benchmarks of success are needed, and emerging successful here without getting the wobbles would count as one.

South Sea islands are not Wales' preferred companions at times of stress. The Samoans have famously brought the Welsh to their knees in disbelief twice before in World Cups, (although Tonga have been more cooperative playmates, twice.) In a welcome break with the previous patterns of defeat, however, this game is not in front of a home crowd. Although a few hardy Welsh souls are believed to be risking the journey.

So assuming Wales will be able to summon the emotional fortitude to win this thing, how close will they come to covering the 24.5 point handicap? In twelve World Cup wins, Wales have covered a 24.5 point handicap on six occasions, three times against Canada and three times against Japan. Since the last World Cup, Wales have covered 24.5 points on seven occasions in 22 wins, against Italy twice, Romania, USA, and predictably Japan and Canada (twice). Against a mixed team of Pacific Islanders in 2006, they won 38-20 and in their last game against Fiji themselves they won by just a single point (11-10). Wales have never lost to Fiji in the six games they've played.

As to whether Fiji can hold Wales to within 24.5 points, they have lost nine games in World Cup play, three of them by more than 24.5 points, but never to a team ranked as low as Wales. They lost 55-12 to Australia in this group; France and New Zealand were the two other teams who beat them and they beat them heavily. In their last pool game in the 2003 tournament, Fiji played Scotland, a team of similar international standing to Wales in a game which decided who progressed to the quarter finals. Fiji lost by two points.

All four pool games in the 2003 event between the teams which finished second and third in the tables were won by the higher ranked team, although only one by more than 24.5 points (South Africa vs Samoa 60-10.) Since the last World Cup, only Australia (twice) and New Zealand have beaten Fiji by more than 24.5 points, during that same period Fiji have played six nations teams twice, losing by 15 points to Italy and 1 point to Wales.

Indeed, Fiji have only lost four times to six nations teams by more than 24.5 points in the last ten years. Seven other defeats were by a narrower margin. Unless Wales are planning a night to remember, history favours Fiji to keep them within their sights. (You can get Fiji +24.5 points on betfair at 1.63, Wales -24.5 points on betfair at 2.12.)