World Cup / Tony Calvin / 19 October 2007 / Leave a comment

That "man in the know" Tony Calvin gives us his views on the Final

So how misplaced is the recent money for England to win the Rugby World Cup final?

They seem incredibly short at 3.15 to win it outright, and 3.4 to do so in 80 minutes.

I normally take bookmakers' claims that they are seeing floods of patriotic money for England in big sporting events with a large dollop of cynicism, but just one click on the Betfair graphs - when will the traditional layers open up their field books, I wonder? - confirms that it is indeed true.

England drifted to 280 to retain the trophy after losing 36-0 to South Africa, and I think those odds accurately reflected their chances at the time.

They had to beat Samoa and Tonga to even get out of their group - and there were given scares in both games - and even then they looked to face a probable Cup run-on of Australia in the quarter-final, New Zealand in the semi-final and South Africa in the final.

Little wonder the layers were falling over themselves to get the front of the laying queue on Betfair.

But then everything went their way, with Australia falling apart up front and failing to kick their goals, France shocking a headless New Zealand 20-18 and then freezing against them in the semi-final.

So England get to the final by only scoring 26 points in their last two matches, and facing a side who crushed them by 36 points in the pool stages.

So why have they been backed into 3.15 in the winner market to win the Cup?

Undoubtedly, the occasion. Big occasions - as New Zealand, Australia and France have found in this tournament - are often a great leveler, and whoever handles the pressure best will probably win.

And England's backers are hoping that, guided by the 2003 hero Jonny Wilkinson, they are that team.

And there is plenty of hope for England. They clearly are improving, their defence is at the top of its game, and the side cannot possibly be worse than in that humiliating South African defeat.

But even in that 36-0 loss, there were one or two positives. Well, okay one - the scrum.

The Springbok scrum is one of the most over-rated set-pieces in this tournament and Andy Sheridan and Matt Stevens took them to the cleaners in that match, even pushing them off their own ball at one stage.

So England will kick high balls to the suspect Percy Montgomery at full-back, and punt deep for territory in the hope that their defensive line can hold firm and line-out can gain parity, or at least nick the odd ball from the Bok giants of Matfield-Botha, not to mention their towering and incredibly tall back-row.

I think if England are to win this, then two things need to happen.

They need to get about 60 per cent of the possession in the match, and Wilkinson has to kick all his goals. And it is a sobering statistic that sees Jonny among the least accurate place-kickers in this tournament, a fact that many have ignored in the run-up to this game.

I am not convinced by several aspects of England's play and selection, notably midfield attacking cohesion and Phil Vickery at prop, but they could win this if the cards fall their way.

But the Boks do appear to hold all the aces if they can get their hands on the ball, and if it is turnover ball, then they can devastate opposition with their pace and rampaging and mobile back-row - just ask Argentina.

So, for me, the Boks represent fair value at 1.46 in the Betfair outright market. I would rather take that price rather than 1.49 in the match odds because, like so many previous finals, it could well be a very tight and low-scoring match, a fact that a price of only 25 for the draw underlines.

I will be happy to lose and be proved wrong, though.

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Tags: Jonny Wilkinson, rugby betting, Rugby World Cup, Tony Calvin