World Cup / Editor / 18 October 2007 / Leave a comment

Chicken Dinner look at why the stats give us very little indication of who's going to win the big one

England vs South Africa, Rugby World Cup Final, Saturday October 20, 8pm, Paris

England +8.5pts

Current IRB world rankings, as of October 15: South Africa 2, England 3.

Form book, meet window. If ever there was a tournament to make pundits think twice about the long-term viability of their fortune-telling careers, this is it. Back in September, only a lunatic would have dreamt of backing anyone other than New Zealand or France for the title.

A little over a month ago England were universally derided as a slow-witted national embarrassment, and before the Australia game they were available at 75.0 on Betfair to win the tournament. Yet their rehabilitation has been so swift and dramatic that all 100,000 replica shirts that were made for the tournament have now sold out, so eager are the "fans" to share in the team's success. Didn't see that one coming, did you Mr Expert?

So with the form book now floating in the middle of the koi carp pond, a study of recent games, head-to-heads and previous World Cups is somewhat moot, unless you take the position that as the last few games have been so topsy-turvy, it's worth knowing what the form says in order to bet against it.

So, perversely in England's favour then, are the facts that only unbeaten teams have ever won the world cup, that no team has ever successfully defended their title, that four of the five World Cups have been won by southern hemisphere sides, including all those played in the northern hemisphere, and that England have been absolutely dismantled by the South Africans in the last three games they have played (58-10, 55-22 and the 36-0 horror show in Paris last month).

Another counterintuitive trend has been the value of "freshness" - theoretically teams which have been less stretched should be at a significant physical advantage. Not so New Zealand. Didn't work for Australia either. Should South Africa be concerned at their lack of a vigorous work out so far?

As for the handicap market, five games at the pool stage had a narrower handicap than 8.5 points, and four of the five were covered easily (the only exception was Scotland + 2.5 points against Italy, Italy won by 2). But that was before the mayhem of the knockout stage, in which only one team (South Africa against Argentina) has covered the handicap in the six quarter and semi-final games. The three World Cup finals that either England or South Africa have appeared in have all ended by margins of fewer than 8.5 points, the other two finished by more. To further muddy the water though, with the exception of the Fiji match, South Africa have won all their games by more than 8.5 points. No help there. (You can get England +8.5 points on betfair at 2.0, South Africa -8.5 points on betfair at 1.99).

So in the absence of anything resembling a helpful pattern, here's one last piece of entirely circumstantial reasoning in favour of an England win (you can get South Africa to win at 1.44 on Betfair, England to win at 3.2 on betfair) - EVERY World Cup has either been won by the host, or the team that has beaten the host.

Tags: Chicken Dinner, England rugby, Rugby betting, Rugby World Cup final, Wilkinson