Forget the England hype and back France

World Cup / Tony Calvin / 12 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

No-nonsense betting expert Tony Calvin tells us why your money should be on France

England euphoria is on a high after their 12-10 defeat of Australia last weekend, but does that performance justify them being quoted as low as 3.6 in the match odds market on Betfair to beat France in Paris on Saturday night?

Or being asked to receive just an 8.5 point start on Betfair's main handicap line?

Not in my book.

Let's take the positives first. The England pack dominated the match, the defence and commitment at the breakdown was much improved, the three-quarters showed more invention and the memories of that humiliating 36-0 loss to South Africa in the pool stages were banished.

But just how good were England, and how bad were Australia? Unfortunately for Brian Ashton, I fear it was more of the latter than the former.

Yes, it was a win against all the odds - I thought Australia would win by 20 - but I think England should be worried that even with such a stranglehold up front, they only scraped home by two points.

Because for the life of me, I cannot see France being so supine in the forwards.

About the only thing that I got right in the assessment of last week's game was that Andy Sheridan had to destroy the Australian scrummage and Jonny Wilkinson had to kick his goals for England to have a chance. They did just that.

But when it boils down to it, England failed to score a try against top-tier opposition once again and are clearly lacking a cutting edge.

France certainly were not in the second half against New Zealand last week, and I would venture that their two point victory against the All Blacks was worth a damn sight more than England's over Australia.

I would concur that New Zealand threw the match away after leading 13-0 in the first half - at which stage they traded at 1.02 on Betfair - and that France's second try was clearly forward.

But sometimes you have to make your own luck in this game, and France did.

And can you see the French pack being taken to the cleaners here. Oz style? I cannot, and I dare say Sheridan won't believe the hype surrounding him and expect to get too much of a nudge on Peter de Villiers. If the French eight could contain the All Black scrum, then I think that they can cope on Saturday night.

Behind the scrum, there is no doubt that the potency, power and incision of the French three-quarters is greater.

France have won five out of the last six matches between these sides, most recently in the summer when winning 21-15 at Twickenham and 22-9 in Marseilles (note that England didn't score a try in either match).

That firmly points to France being the bet to concede 8.5 points here with home advantage, but England backers can take heart from the fact that two of the other three defeats only came by one and three points (though the other loss was by 25).

Given the all-round potency of both side's starting XV's - and more importantly options on the bench (await the roar when Chabal takes the field) - it has to be France at 1.44 in the outright and at 2.08 on the handicap.