World Cup / Dean Roulston / 12 October 2007 / Leave a comment

Kiwi-in-mourning Dean Roulston reluctantly looks back at where it all went wrong for the hot favourites

Last weekend was nothing short of a disaster for the South Pacific Nations with both of the region's major hopes for tournament glory being unceremoniously dumped out of the tournament and sent home early. Both results were, on paper, upsets of the highest order. England had shown nothing for the last couple of years to suggest that they had a chance against Australia. That said, they had one chance to be competitive and that was by dominating the forward exchanges and they achieved this in impressive fashion. England, as a team, grew with every scrum they dominated or turnover they forced and they gradually edged in front and managed to hold on for a famous win.

That result had most All Black fans thinking they now had a relatively easy route all the way to the final once they dispatched of the French in Cardiff later that night. How wrong they were. Things seemed to be going great guns when leading 13-0 a quarter of the way through the game. The All Blacks were completely dominating possession and territory, but the French clawed back, got in front and held on for grim life to record another highly unlikely win.

And then, utter disbelief for 4 million Kiwis the world over. How had this happened? What had gone wrong? This team had supposedly been the best prepared in World Cup history, no stone had been left unturned. There are many common theories being bandied about back in the land of the long white cloud as to what went wrong, many are blaming the referee, others prefer to focus on the lack of tough matches in the lead up to the game, and some are focusing on the controversial rotation policy that Graham Henry has followed over the last few years.

In reality, it's probably a mix of factors. There is no doubt that the squad that Henry had at his disposal was the most talented at the tournament. As it turned out, things conspired against them. First and foremost, the French played out of their skins, much better than in recent games between the sides and earlier in the tournament. Not an awful lot went the All Blacks' way in the game with injuries throughout and in particular two hugely influential refereeing decisions that went in favour of the French. There is also merit in the opinion that the so called 'top' team hadn't played together often enough, making it hard to develop any real cohesion.

Surprisingly, the NZ rugby public has been incredibly understanding this time around (maybe we're getting used to it), as it's visible how gutted the team and coaching staff are. Many of them have played (and in Henry's case coached) their last game for the All Blacks, so this is a particularly sour note to end it all on, especially considering the success they've had in the last few years with a Grand Slam, Lions series whitewash and domination of the Tri Nations and Bledisloe Cup.

From here, France are going to be tough to stop back on home soil. England won't enjoy the same domination up front that was seen against Australia, and will probably need to score some tries. But with England's glaring limitations in the backs, it's hard to see where these going to come from. Who they'll play in the final is anyone's guess, as the Bok's haven't really been tested yet and the Pumas are arguably the form team of the tournament. Regardless, I expect both games to be incredibly tight, so would suggest laying the heavy favourites in the Match Odds markets (France are 1.43, South Africa are 1.35) with a view to trading is a sound investment.

Tags: All Blacks lose, Dean Roulston, rugby betting, Rugby World Cup