Burger keen to get stuck in to the USA after ban

World Cup / Editor / 30 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Betting experts Chicken Dinner look ahead to the USA's final clash in the tournament against South Africa

South Africa vs USA, Rugby World Cup, Sunday September 30, Pool A, Montpellier
USA + 58.5 points.

Current IRB world rankings, as of September 24: South Africa 3, USA 17

Few things stand closer to the heart of American life than sports, yet for some impenetrable reason that obsession has never extended to playing team games with other countries. They love to lord it as individuals at the Olympics, but the football World Cup is belittled as pointless in the American press, the lacklustre US Olympic basketball team is a source of national embarrassment and the baseball world cup comes and goes every two years with barely a ripple of recognition (Cuba always win). For all sorts of reasons, from geographical isolation to television's love of games made up of "plays" (bursts of activity interspersed with coaching interludes - perfect for advertisers) rather than uninterrupted stretches of action, international team sports just don't get the American pulse racing.

So while the United States is full of big lads who don't mind a bit of physical contact, the US rugby team is doomed to lurk beneath countries like Romania and Georgia in the rankings. Even the illusion that someone could get hurt at any moment doesn't work its usual marketing magic, and the USA will kick off against South Africa at exactly the same time as a vast television audience settles down for an afternoon of beer-fuelled oval ball action in the NFL, none of them even aware that the American rugby team is doing anything other than watching too.

Still, things have not gone that badly for USA in this World Cup, even if they haven't inspired too many kids to switch codes. They have lost every game, as expected, but the narrowness of the margins has surprised those who expected them to be cannon fodder. Indeed, in their entire World Cup history, the Americans have yet to suffer a real heavy defeat. In 16 games, they have never conceded more than 58.5 points, despite having played the likes of England, France, Australia and New Zealand. Their biggest ever margin of defeat, came in the 53-8 loss to Ireland in 1999. They have only ever met South Africa in friendlies, in 2001 and 1981. South Africa won both of these matches, but neither were walkovers (20-43 and 7-38). Since the last World Cup the USA have conceded more than 58.5 points twice, against New Zealand Maori (74-6) and Wales (77-3), the only times anyone has even scored 58.5 points against them during that period.

The biggest margin South Africa have won by in the last year is their 59-7 victory over Samoa, in the opening group game. This will encourage backers that that they can get near the handicap, given the tightness of the USA's clash with the Samoans. Yet South Africa have only once beaten a team by a score greater than the 58.5 points needed in a World Cup, when they demolished Uruguay 72-6 in 2003, and have won just two games by more since then, against Uruguay (134-3) and Namibia (105-13).

One key variable will be South Africa's desire to "save themselves" for battles ahead, which they made no bones about in the Tri-Nations. In their last pool games in previous World Cups they have beaten Samoa (60-10 in 2003), Uruguay (39-3 in 1999) and Canada (20-0 in 1995). All the Americans have to save themselves for is a long trip back to the anonymity of a large international airport. They could be up for a last hurrah.