World Cup / Editor / 12 October 2007 / Leave a comment

Chicken Dinner tell us why the omens aren't good for the Pumas

South Africa vs Argentina, Rugby World Cup semi-final, Sunday October 14, 8pm, Paris
Argentina + 9.5 points

Current IRB world rankings, as of October 8: South Africa 3, Argentina 4.

South Africa must be wondering quite what they've done to deserve all this good fortune. Closeted away from the world, only two rumours have penetrated their ring of concrete. One, that New Zealand were seen heading to the airport in tears, and two, that when they got there all the seats on the plane south had been taken by Australia. And they both turned out to be true.

On top of that, France took a wrong turn into the other half of the draw, which means South Africa find themselves at the semi-final stage having hardly broken a sweat, against what feels like the weakest team of the four remaining. So much for honing their physical style of rugby - they can't even find a big team to play them. Apologists for New Zealand's limp Cup have suggested that a lack of challenging opposition in the pool stage made it impossible for them to prepare properly, which a relatively fresh South Africa will find an excellent joke as they watch a knackered England and France put each other through another fifteen rounds.

Argentina can also be forgiven for frequent self-pinching. Only once in their history have they crawled out of the pool stage, in 1999, only to be kicked in the face by France in the quarter finals 47-26. They must fear this is their destiny in their first ever semi-final, as they have played South Africa 11 times, and lost 11 times. Indeed, Tri-Nations sides are not their thing: they have never beaten New Zealand either, and their last win against Australia came ten years ago. And having the best defensive record going into the semis, as Argentina do, is no magic ticket either - three of the five best defences at this stage have gone out in the semis, and only one has gone on to win (South Africa in 1995). The only chink of light is that they haven't played South Africa since November 2005, since when they have risen to their highest ever position (4) in the world rankings.

South Africa have appeared in two semi-finals in the three tournaments they have been allowed to play in, losing to Australia 27-21 in 1999 and beating France 19-15 on their way to the title in 1995. In 2003 they were shown the door by New Zealand in the quarters, but have yet to have a bad World Cup experience at the hands of an upstart, if you don't count the scare that Tonga gave them in the pool stage. Argentina, though, would argue that they deserve a bit more respect than that, even if they do play a dreary and uninspired kicking game.

They have won 12 of their last 15 matches, with none of their defeats being by humiliating margins (Wales, 27-20, France 27-26, New Zealand, 25-19), which suggests that if Argentina are going to lose, they will fight hard to stay within the handicap. In World Cup semis, every tournament, with the exception of 2003 has seen one game finish by a margin of six points or fewer, including both of South Africa's previous semi-finals. Argentina's last defeat by more than 9.5 points was against Samoa 28-12 in 2005, since when their results have been formidable. But so have South Africa's - they have won their last seven games, all of them by a margin much greater than 9.5 points. Thanks for nothing, South Africa. (You can get Argentina +9.5 points on betfair at 1.93, South Africa -9.5 points on betfair at 2.02).

Tags: Chicken Dinner, rugby betting, Rugby World Cup