World Cup / Editor / 30 September 2007 / Leave a comment

Tony Calvin tells us why the USA have been slightly underestimated

Georgia, so unlucky not to have beaten Ireland, take on France in today's opening match. They still have a mathematical chance of getting to the quarter finals but you suspect that they will have one foot on the plane home (which may not be a long haul for most, as a lot play their club rugby in France) after winning their very own Cup final last time, namely a 30-0 defeat of Namibia.

If they still have their game heads on though, a 50.5 start on Betfair is very generous, though they are trading at 1.53 on that line. Handicaps range from 44 to 48 elsewhere.

They beat Namibia by 30, and only lost by four to Ireland and by 30 to an Argentina side that were only winning 6-3 at the break.

France have picked a very powerful XV, though you have to think Georgia still have one last big game in them and can stay within the handicap.

The last match of the day probably presents the best punting opportunity, even though the Springboks wheel out their big guns for the final pool clash. The USA are worth supporting +54 elsewhere, and those wanting extra insurance can take 1.54 +58.5 on Betfair.

We said yesterday that the weather can have a massive effect on teams trying to concede large handicaps, and you have to think that South Africa may take their foot off the pedal once they have won this game, just as they did when they thought they had put Tonga away. They were only one bounce of a ball away from defeat there.

And the USA have impressed me in this tournament, only losing by 18 points to England and 10 to Tonga. And with more self belief they could and should have beaten a weakened and tired Samoa side last time, instead of losing 25-21.

They are likely to blown away by the sheer bulk and pace of the Boks, and they do come into this game nursing some walking wounded. But handicap starts in the 50s do them a disservice.

Tags: Pietersen, rugby handicap, Rugby World Cup, Tony Calvin