Tri-Nations / Paul Moon / 05 July 2008 / Leave a comment

Wobbling Wallabies likely to be weakest of three, says Paul Moon

Question: When was the last time that Australia entered a sporting competition with an unfit team? Frankly, who knows, but I can tell you when the next time is: 6.05pm on 19 July 2008 at the Subiaco Oval, Perth, Australia playing against South Africa.

The sensational news from Australia is that their rugby union team about to compete in the Tri-Nations is not fit! It has alarmed coach Robbie Deans who has admitted it is a concern, which is coded language for panic. Because of this he will structure the Wallabies' game plan to suit the fitness level of his players.

This of course means that Australia will compete in the Tri-Nations series with a handicap. The fitness gap that exists between the Wallabies and their international rivals cannot be bridged until after the Tri-Nations series. It has to be done over a period of months.

After their World Cup horror show, Australia are under pressure and have been the least impressive in the lead up to this series in their wins over Ireland and France. Consequently they've taken a thrashing in the media. It promises to get worse before it gets better.

Post-World Cup, the three squads have a fresh look about them with several new faces but the tournament will almost certainly be dominated as much by the coaches as by the players. Australia's new coach is the incomparable Kiwi Robbie Deans. His era has thrown a cloud of exciting uncertainty over the Wallabies' Tri-Nations hopes.

The inspirational Deans has promised to ditch the robotic rugby of his predecessor Eddie Jones. It was not unusual for the Wallabies of old to have five pre-planned moves to run through from any given set-piece situation. Versatility is something that Deans is keen to develop as it strengthens the overall balance of the current Wallabies squad.

The Tri-Nations promises to be high-class adrenaline-pumping rugby with fearsome clashes, hard hitting tackles and explosive back-line movements.

And Australia will be exposed. Dean Jones is the best coach New Zealand never had and given time he will transform Australia around but not in time for this series.

Current prices to win the Tri Nation Series are New Zealand [1.8] South Africa [3.85] Australia [5.0]. In my previous article the Wallabies' were trading at [3.95] so a real slide has taken place in the betting. http://betting.betfair.com/rugby-bet/rugby-union/international/international-rugby-union-betting-whos-the-top-team-in-140608.html

It is a paradox of rugby union that while the better teams are in the Southern Hemisphere the gravy train is in Europe and because of this there have been changes in personnel to all three teams.

Australian Luke Burgess is a man to watch in this series. He is lightning quick around the fringes and has the stunning ability to take a gap. Although his passing was below par against France his service is usually electric. He ticks most boxes and has the look of an improver.

Whilst James Horwill and Lachie Turner are exciting prospects, skipper Stirling Mortlock will be the key to how the new side improve. As he gets older he gets better, Australia will struggle to replace him. He is one of those players who has the ability to create something out of nothing - making half breaks that pave the way for more telling attacks. To gauge his true worth you need to watch Australia play without him!

Since the inception of the Tri Nations series in 1996 Australia haven't won the trophy since claiming it back-to-back in 2000-01. Standing in Australia's way of collecting the Tri Nations are two successive games in South Africa - Australia haven't won in the Republic since 2001.

Australia will not win it this year but build for the season after. Despite the draw I think South Africa will win this series and may even win in Wellington this Saturday 5 July 2008.

Tags: Australia, Dean Jones, Tri-Nations