Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 03 July 2008 / Leave a comment

Geoff Riddle runs the rule over perennial World Cup underachievers New Zealand. The All Blacks are always a formidable force at home, but can they pick up enough points on the road to be crowned champions?

New Zealand are once again favourites for the Tri-Nations, and they start the tournament with a double-header against world champions South Africa in Wellington and Dunedin.

The fixture list then sees them get two weeks rest before they must play trans-Tasman rivals Australia in Sydney, before hosting the Wallabies a week later in Auckland. They then get another fortnight off before they play South Africa at sea-level in Cape Town, before having their final match for the Bledisloe Cup away in Brisbane.

It is a charmed draw, and given that the All Blacks avoid a Test at altitude, Graham Henry's charges rightly trade at [1.85] ahead of Saturday's early kick-off.

The All Blacks have been matched at as short as [1.7] on Betfair, but an injury to inspirational captain and flanker Richie McCaw against England two weeks ago has seen the price correct itself over the last ten days or so.

So what are South Africa and Australia up against? Well, on their own patch, New Zealand seemingly are near unbeatable. Their 44-12 win in the second Test in Christchurch over England was their 28th consecutive victory on home soil. It is a stunning achievement, and one which sees them trade at [2.02] for the World Cup in New Zealand in 2011.

Under coach Graham Henry, they average 29.33 points per match at home and the lowest score they have registered at home is 13, when Clive Woodward's England bullied them into submission in 2003.

There is one alarming factor, however, that punters should be aware of when looking at the opening double-header against the Springboks. New Zealand have suffered just three defeats in 45 fixtures at home since the turn of the century. But take a closer look at those losses and you will notice that all three were against the IRB's No.1 ranked side in the world, which just happens to be South Africa at this point in time.

This weekend's opener in the Westpac Stadium is pivotal, therefore. Win that, and the stage will be set for a ninth Kiwi title. Lose it though, and South Africa could easily build up the arrogance and temerity to wrest the championship off the holders. It's going to be a fascinating encounter.
Anyone intent on backing New Zealand blindly in all three of their home games should perhaps limit their support to the first 40 minutes. In the last 22 Tri-Nations fixtures that New Zealand have contested, they have only trailed at the break five times, and the last three times they have found themselves in that position, they won the match anyway.

Although the All Blacks' away record is the best in the competition by some way in the last eight years (NZ 52.9%, Aus 17.6%, South Africa boast just one win) what is most interesting about their road form under Graham Henry is that they invariably pick up a bonus point. In the last nine away matches in the Tri-Nations under the wily Aucklander, the All Blacks have picked up at least a bonus point six times.

Their best chance of an away success this year is in Sydney in their third fixture, where they have won three of their last seven matches against the Wallabies.

McCaw's enforced absence has seen the way open up for Rodney So'oialo, who not only takes the skipper's role, but also his position at open-side, too. So'oialo hasn't relished playing on the flank this season, and it was clear in the run-outs against Ireland and England this summer that it is a position that he is taking his time to get used to. You don't want to be wet behind the ears up against Australia's Phil Waugh and George Smith, nor Juan Smith from South Africa for that matter, either.

The thinking behind moving So'oialo to flanker was to be able to use him more dynamically, both in defence and in attack, to produce turnover ball in tandem with McCaw under the new ELVs under which the series will be played.

The laws have also been added to for the purpose of this tournament, allowing mauls to be dragged down, and numbers in the line-outs to be different. It will be an interesting variation, and one which South Africa, who love to maul from line-outs, are likely to be cursing.
South Africa certainly have the wherewithal to win the first Test in Wellington, and from there go on an win the whole competition. But things are conspiring against them and New Zealand's charmed draw, the ELV additions, and their far superior road form all point to another All Black success.

Tags: All Blacks, New Zealand, Rugby Betting, Rugby Union Betting, Tri-nations Betting