Tri-Nations / Editor / 23 August 2008 / Leave a comment

Paul Moon has been surprised by the poor performances of South Africa, his pre-tournament tip for the Tri-Nations. Can they turn around a lacklustre competition by beating Australia today?

Last week I envisaged a tough and bruising encounter between South Africa and New Zealand in Capetown. I thought it would be close but predicted the Springboks would underline their superb 30-28 victory in Dunedin with a follow up victory. For them to lose and not score a point was beyond belief!

The Springboks' hopes of winning the Tri-Nations rest on a substantial performance against the Australians at the ABSA Stadium in Durban on Saturday 23 August 2008. Likewise, a victory for the Wallabies will make them favourites to steal the series and against all odds!

Charismatic coach Robbie Deans continues to work his magic with the Australians. For them to be so close to winning the Tri-Nations with the cards he was dealt with speaks volumes for the best coach in world rugby. He expects the game to be a fast-paced contest in dry conditions so the shrewd coach has made some key changes. Latest Betfair odds: South Africa [1.5] Australia [3.1] Draw [30.0]

Mobile tight-head prop Matt Dunning has been recalled to Australia's starting line-up in a strong indication that the Wallabies plan to play at speed and run South Africa off their feet. Deans has asked Dunning to put the afterburners on.

Cantankerous but influential blindside flanker Rocky Elsom has recovered from a foot injury to resume his place on the side of the scrum at the expense of Phil Waugh. The Wallabies sorely missed Elsom at Eden Park and his sheer presence will help them enormously. He will impart physical presence as well as lineout skills. More good news is that James Horwill has recovered from a foot injury and will take his place in the second row.

Australia are clearly making progress and will hope they can seize the opportunity to set themselves up for a death or glory play-off Tri-Nations title match against the Kiwis in Australia on September 13th 2008. The Wallabies are hungry for a first win on South African soil in eight years. They are desperate to prove their defeat to New Zealand three weeks ago was a glitch, their first in six Tests under Robbie Deans.

The Springboks are a wounded animal playing in front of a hostile crowd and that makes them dangerous. But they are also confused, which makes them beatable. Though they won the World Cup last year on the strength of their forwards and a kicking game, new coach Peter de Villiers now wants to play more expansive 15-man rugby under the new laws and generally the country is against it!

De Villiers has resisted calls for mass changes to his forward pack. He supposedly signalled that his side would look to play an attacking game by picking exciting full-back Conrad Jantjes ahead of veteran Percy Montgomery. The consensus of last week's horror defeat to New Zealand was that the Springboks were not happy throwing the ball around and this was almost admitted by de Villiers. He claims that they will continue with this plan but I do not believe him for a second! This game is too important. Now that they have some injuries to key players we can confidently expect them to revert to structured play using their big forwards. Lightening quick Bryan Habana is out with a hamstring tear and dramatically reduces the attacking option. They have already lost skipper John Smit and towering lock Bakkies Botha for the remainder of the series.

It's tricky to pick the winner of this game because of the uncertainty enveloping the Springboks so the value may be with the Wallabies. Prices with Betfair on the winner of the Tri-Nations Series: New Zealand [1.48] Australia [3.4] South Africa [15.0].

Tags: Australia, Bakkies Botha, Bryan Habana, Conrad Jantjes, James Horwill, John Smit, Matt Dunning, New Zealand, Percy Montgomery, Peter de Villiers, Robbie Deans, Rocky Elsom, South Africa, Tri-Nations