Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 22 August 2008 / Leave a comment

Picking the winner in this year's enigmatic Tri-Nations tournament is no mean feat. We've asked the appropriately named Geoff Riddle to have a go. Next up, South Africa try to beat Australia at home.

Last weekend South Africa were a shambles against New Zealand, losing 19-0 in Cape Town. It was a thoroughly miserable performance from the home side, and if that wasn't enough, their talismanic winger, Bryan Habana, limped off with a torn hamstring. He may have played his last game in this year's tournament.

That loss blew open the competition (once again!) and the Springboks now need two bonus-point victories in their home double-header against Australia in Durban this Saturday, and Johannesburg next week. They also then need Australia to pick themselves up off the canvas and go on to beat New Zealand in Brisbane next month. South Africa are currently trading at [13.0] to win the Tri-Nations on Betfair, with Australia [3.5] and New Zealand [1.54].

On the face of it, things do not look too good for the Wallabies' chances over the next fortnight.
Since their inspirational skipper John Eales retired from international rugby in 2001, Australia's win percentage on the road has been just over 30 per cent, with most of those victories coming against northern hemisphere teams. In the Tri-Nations, Australia boast 14 straight losses on the road, a record that stretches back to when Matt Burke inspired the 23-15 win against New Zealand in Dunedin seven years ago.

Australia have not won in South Africa since 2000, and that was largely down to a brilliant kick by Stirling Mortlock from the touchline that sealed the deal 19-18 in Durban. As the Wallabies have only won two matches in South Africa since inclusion in 1992, Mortlock is the only player from the current squad to have enjoyed success in South Africa. It's quite easy to understand, therefore, why Australia are as big as [3.05] for the Durban clash this weekend.

Timing is often essential to success, however, and this weekend Australia have got their best chance in seven years of recording that elusive road victory in the Tri-Nations. If you look at their record in the Rainbow Nation at sea-level, it is, unsurprisingly, considerably better in recent times than it is at altitude, which spells doom and gloom for next weekend's encounter on the high veld in Johannesburg.

South Africa are clearly in a transitional phase, and they are trying to come to terms with Peter de Villiers' vision of running rugby. Making this journey hasn't been made any easier under the new ELVs, either.

Richie McCaw was quite obviously the difference between New Zealand and South Africa last weekend. Both Schalk Burger and Juan Smith were outmanoeuvred by McCaw in the loose, winning just 12 turnovers. Under the new ELVs, that simply is not enough, and against Australia, who base their entire counter-attacking philosophy on turnovers, it could be suicide.

George Smith is the second-best open-side flanker in the world after McCaw in terms of operating in the loose. He snaffles up possession with regularity and is a master at slowing down the opposition's possession, giving his team-mates valuable seconds to co-ordinate defence. His performance will be key.

Another important area for consideration should be the points and tries market. South Africa have crossed the tryline just three times in the Tri-Nations this season. Habana's injury could not have come at a worse time for the home side, but he has touched down only twice this season, from seven games. Given he had scored 29 tries from 36 appearances coming into this tournament, it is a pretty poor return by his standards.

What his replacement, Jongikhaya Nokwe, is capable of, God only knows, but one thing is for sure, this season, the Springboks haven't really got Habana into the number of try-scoring positions he is accustomed to. Nokwe is fast, he proved that on his debut when South Africa thrashed Argentina 63-9 earlier this month, but there was not much we could learn about his all-round game in such a fixture.

It is fair to say that it was a surprise that New Zealand won so emphatically last week in Cape Town, but if you look at their away record since the 2003 World Cup, they operate at just over a 75 per cent success rate on the road. France, who it must be remembered beat South Africa in Newlands two years ago, have won around 68 per cent of their away matches in the same time frame, and had won seven in a row before drawing 30-30 in Durban in 2005. Australia are not operating at nearly that level away from home, even under Deans, who managed to blow his unbeaten record when getting pummeled 39-10 in New Zealand last time out.

Quite simply, on the pitch Australia have the edge, and the circumstances of this clash favours them like no other time in recent history. The statistics, on the other hand, indicate that it will be far from an easy task.

Tags: Australia, New Zealand, Rugby Betting, South Africa, Tri-Nations Betting