Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 25 July 2008 / 1 Comments

Two of the world's finest tacticians will square up on the touchline in Syndey while on the field the flankers are key as Richie McCaw races to be fit for a mouthwatering clash, writes Geoffrey Riddle.

One thing that punters should zero in on ahead of this weekend's Tri-Nations encounter between Australia and New Zealand in Sydney is the possession statistics of this southern hemisphere season.

It is an illuminating area, and should prove food for thought about how the first Bledisloe Cup fixture of the year is going to shape up.

What is most remarkable about these figures is that when Australia buried an under-strength France 40-10 earlier this month, they did so with just 33 per cent possession. The Wallabies also saw off Ireland 18-12 with just 41 per cent of the ball, and last week's sensational 16-7 victory against the Springboks in Perth was achieved with 49 per cent.

It appeared to me that Australia's scrum fronted up against South Africa last week, and the increased time on the ball seems to back that up. If Australia can get anything like the same amount of possession tomorrow, they should stay within the handicap of +4.5 points on Betfair, or at the very least go some way to landing the [2.78] that they are to win the clash.

What those figures also illustrate is the crucial role that flankers George Smith and Phil Waugh perform for the Wallabies when they play this sort of counter-attacking rugby. If Smith, who skippers the side in Stirling Mortlock's enforced absence, can dominate the breakdown, especially with the amount of turnovers rising through the roof thanks to the new ELVs, then Australia's brilliant backs can convert the possession to points.

The outcome of this game hinged on whether Richie McCaw, New Zealand's talismanic skipper and the world's outstanding flanker, could recuperate in time to take to the Sydney turf. Replacement No.7 Daniel Braid is a decent player in his own right but he simply does not have the core skills, not to mention the aura, that are likely to create similar problems for Smith that McCaw might have done.

If you don't believe the impact on which McCaw has on the All Blacks, the website www.scrum.com recently illustrated that McCaw had the best winning percentage of all time at 88.7 of any All Black player who had featured in 25 Tests or more. He really is that influential.

The continued loss of McCaw means there is one less All Black who has played under new Australian coach Robbie Deans when he was in charge of the Crusaders, the Super 14 franchise. It is something that perhaps Kiwi coach Graham Henry has been mindful of as his run-on side this weekend now features just four players from Deans's Super 14 champions (Greg Somerville, Brad Thorn, Andrew Ellis and Dan Carter).

Deans is a master tactician and it will be interesting to see whether he will continue with his same counter-attacking philosophy against New Zealand, especially now the approach is made easier without McCaw.

It must be remembered that Henry transformed New Zealand into the ultimate counter-attacking side in 2004-5, when they stuffed France 46-5 in Paris, saw off the British and Irish Lions, and completed the Grand Slam in Europe. If there is any way that Henry understands how a team can play, it is through that method.

Where Deans does seem to have an edge is that Henry crosses the Tasman Sea with what can only be described as a squad in transition. Some would probably go as far as to say that, in fact, this All Black side is actually pretty sub-standard.

If you look at the pack, hooker Andrew Hore, second-row Brad Thorn and Braid all made their debuts in 2002-2003, and yet none of them proved good enough to be regulars in Henry's starting line-ups since then.

Quite simply, although talented, they are not top drawer. Although centre Ma'a Nonu is clearly getting better with every game, the same could probably be said about him, too. More worrying perhaps for New Zealand supporters is that the backline failed to cross the whitewash in the two Tests against South Africa, relying exclusively on No.8 Jerome Kaino, who was unlucky not to take his tally to two.

Australia have their fair share of greenhorns as well, however. In the backs, Peter Hynes, Ryan Cross, Berrick Barnes and halfback Luke Burgess all start their maiden Bledisloe Cup encounter. Forwards James Horwill and Benn Robinson and replacements Timana Tahu and Tatafu Polota-Nau, also do.

New Zealand have won four of the last eight Tri-Nations fixtures in Australia and in those four losses they each time managed to salvage a bonus-point. Having had a good look at this game, I think it is fair to consider this close to a scratch match, and given New Zealand are favourites, I'll tentatively take Australia to win by 1-12 points.

Tags: Australia, Benn Robinson, Berrick Barnes, Graham Henry, James Horwill, Jerome Kaino, Luke Burgess, Ma'a Nonu, New Zealand, Peter Hynes, Robbie Deans, rugby union betting, Ryan Cross, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Timana Tahu, tri-nations betting