Tri-Nations Betting: New Zealand v South Africa

Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 10 July 2008 / Leave a Comment

South Africa are on the road in the Tri-Nations. Next week they travel to Perth to face the Wallabies; but first they must take on the much more testing challenge of New Zealand in Dunedin. Geoff Riddle gauges their chances this weekend.

The last time South Africa were world champions they made a complete pig's ear of the honour. That famous moment, which saw Nelson Mandela hand over the Webb Ellis Cup to Springbok skipper Francois Pienaar, was back in 1995. By March the following year South Africa coach Kitch Christie had departed. Later they were to lose to Australia and New Zealand. Pienaar, as well as Joel Stransky, the fly-half that kicked the winning drop goal, were also both discarded by August.

The question that now must be asked, is whether the world champions are on their way out once again?

Last week's 19-8 Tri-Nations loss to New Zealand in Wellington ended their 13-match winning streak, and also contributed to them yielding their status as the world's number one side in the IRB rugby rankings. That is a significant step backwards, particularly as only the world's No.1 ranked sides have been good enough to win on Kiwi soil this century.

Coach Jake White has been replaced by Pieter de Villiers, who has been described by some as feeling his way into the role, and by others as clueless. To make matters worse, the man generally accepted as being responsible for holding all the warring factions within South African rugby together, captain John Smit, is back in the Rainbow Nation due to a groin injury.

If you wanted to be ultra-critical, you could even add that the tourists are unfit, or at least nowhere near as fit as their Kiwi rivals. Last week South Africa surrendered in the second-half, losing 10-0 in the second 40 minutes. Considering that New Zealand have led at the break in 18 of their last 23 Tri-Nations games, it seems South Africa are very much up against it in Dunedin this weekend. Did I also mention that they had never won there before?

The double result in New Zealand's favour is currently [1.6] on Betfair, but for those who like to keep their betting simple, New Zealand are [1.29] to win the match at the time of writing. That may seem short, but consider this. The All Blacks have won 30 consecutive matches on home soil, South Africa have won just a single game on the road in the Tri-Nations in the last eight years, and haven't won in New Zealand for the last ten. That's a hell of a mountain to climb.
What leans me further to the All Blacks' cause is the case of the ELVs. Most rugby writers in Britain view these laws like a bad boil that needs to be cut out of the game, but one thing is for certain, New Zealand's coaching team have a firm grasp of the meaning of these laws.

Last week the All Blacks dominated the line-out by swamping the catcher when he came back down to earth with more players than South Africa could muster. Due to the new laws, they also used whoever was at the back of the line-out as a tail-gunner, who zeroed in on fly-half Butch James and was allowed to charge down the No.10 from several yards closer that he was used to.

The other consequence is that there are considerably more scrums. Thanks to the downgrading of most indiscretions to free-kicks, New Zealand plumped for a scrum rather more often than the tap and go. It put the Springbok pack under serious pressure - they have been bleating about it all week - and if there is a similar outcome this weekend, I can't really see how South Africa are going to get into the game.

Don't get me wrong, I don't for a minute believe that Graham Henry is presiding over a vintage All Blacks' side just now, but the combination of poor leadership, a poor touring record, and the new ELVs are all making life difficult for South Africa, and they all point towards a solid New Zealand victory once more, probably by 1-12 points again at [2.48].