Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 01 August 2008 / Leave a comment

There has been plenty of value on offer for the savvy punter so far in this year's tournament. However, the chances of a shock in this weekend's match are slim. Geoff Riddle hunts for some opportunities to profit.

Let's be brutally honest here ahead of this weekend's Bledisloe Cup match between New Zealand and Australia in Auckland. The Tri-Nations is a tournament where home advantage generally proves to be crucial. Just over 30 per cent of matches have been won by the away side since the competition began in 1996. That is not really the most relevant part either, because in the second half of the tournament, from the 2002 Tri-Nations onwards, only ten out of the 41 matches have been won by the visitors - a meagre 24 per cent.

We have already seen in earlier rounds what sort of team succeeds in New Zealand, too, and if you aren't the number one side in the world, or pretty damn close to being it, in recent times it has proved nigh on impossible to beat the All Blacks in the Land of the Long White Cloud.
It gets worse for supporters of Robbie Deans' men in their quest to prise open this year's tournament. Australia have failed to beat either New Zealand or South Africa in 14 Tests away from home in the past six years. It's a damning statistic and one that must surely temper any Aussies' confidence in their team's chances in Auckland this weekend. You can get [3.1] about Australia on Betfair at the time of writing.

What did we learn from last weekend's magnificent Test, which saw the Aussies beat New Zealand 34-19? Well, without Richie McCaw on the field, New Zealand are capable of playing some pretty thoughtless rugby. I appreciate that the new ELVs make the ebb and flow of the game slightly different, and some bedding-in time is needed. But being able to change strategy, or adapt to what is in front of you, is a crucial asset in any sport and it is something that New Zealand failed to do last weekend. Some would say it is something that they have failed to do since they last lifted the World Cup in 1987.

The All Blacks' game-plan was to run at the Aussies at all costs, and not give the ball away through kicking. It was a bizarre tactic, especially considering the Wallabies used the boot to good effect. To a certain extent, though, it worked and allowed the All Blacks to score three tries, but when you start to cough up the ball in your own half, and gift your opposition possession in those danger areas, you're always going to find it hard at the coal-face.

Last week I highlighted the effectiveness of Richie McCaw, New Zealand's outstanding openside flanker. The All Black's skipper returns for this crucial showdown, and given that when he is on the field his side have won 88.7 percent of the time, it is easy to see why New Zealand are as short as [1.5]

Early on in the week, it was easy to fancy Graham Henry's troops on the handicap giving up 5.5 points. Things may have changed marginally, however, because Rocky Elsom, the visitor's hulking back-rower, misses the contest and is replaced by Phil Waugh.

Personally, I think that the three best openside flankers in the world will be on the pitch tomorrow, and crucially, whoever wins this battle will surely dictate who wins the Bledisloe war.
Waugh and George Smith are likely to be making life very tough for McCaw, who played under Deans at the Canterbury Crusaders. The All Blacks won the possession stakes last week, but consistently gave the ball away in turnovers and it will be interesting to see if McCaw can stem the flow against Waugh and Smith.

It's a tricky fixture and one which, as far as the match odds and handicap are concerned, looks difficult to squeeze any value out of; the game looks priced correctly. One thing punters should look out for, however, is the drop goal, which is increasingly looking more precious as the ELVs take hold.

Dan Carter, Berrick Barnes and Matt Giteau have all slotted a three-pointer so far this season, and the tactic could prove decisive over the remainder of the tournament. Either team can be backed to open the scoring with one at [34.0].

Tags: Australia, Dan Carter, George Smith, New Zealand, Phil Waugh, Richie McCaw, Rocky Elsom, Rugby Union Betting, Tri-Nations Betting