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Tri-Nations Betting: Bonus points could be key in close contest

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Paul Moon is feeling fairly happy with himself, having predicted New Zealand's travails in this year's tournament. But who does he see going on to win in what will surely be a nail-biter?

The Tri Nations has got off to an exciting start and as predicted in this column on the 14 June 2008 the New Zealander's are struggling to justify favouritism. Click here to view the article.

Let's just remind ourselves of the bonus points system. Teams are awarded four points for a win with a bonus point available to either side for scoring four or more tries. The losing side can also earn a bonus point if they lose by less than eight points. It is possible the winners of this series will win it by a bonus point!

The league table shows the Australians temporarily on top, but they have played both their games at home. They face the toughest run-in which includes two consecutive games away to South Africa, whereas the Springboks have scored a vital win in New Zealand and picking up a valuable bonus point against Australia.

On Saturday 2 August 2008 at Eden Park, Auckland, the All Blacks will be desperate to avoid a third straight Tri-Nations defeat. Their five-year unbeaten home record was broken when losing to the Springboks on 12 July.

Unbeaten in five Tests this season under New Zealand-born coach Robbie Deans, Australia will be looking to beat the All Blacks in their own country for the first time in seven years but I cannot see that happening. The last time Australia won at Eden Park was in September 1986 and despite the Kiwi's being in transition and with another reshuffled backline, I expect them to be too strong. The latest prices available in Betfair's market show: New Zealand [1.53] Australia [3.05] Draw [30.0].

The All Blacks are pinning their hopes two types of attack. Firstly, Ma'a Nonu will again batter inside centre Berwick Barnes's light frame in midfield. I expect them to get a return from this tactic. Aiming runners around his zone is something Graham Henry has talked about and Barnes and Giteau's defensive tackling will come under serious examination. It will be intense and physical stuff and the feature of the game!

Secondly, in the previous game the All Blacks made numerous line breaks, with match-winner Dan Carter frequently splitting the Australian wall. His incredible running and dancing feet did not get the reward it deserved. I expect more of the same. Although the Kiwi's failed to capitalise on chances last time you sense it cannot happen again. I predict a comfortable win with a bonus point for the Kiwis despite the return of the inspirational Wallabies captain Stirling Mortlock.

Credit has to go to Robbie Deans for getting the Wallabies competitive after so many problems including low fitness levels. His defensive organisation was superb without resorting to the mechanical and methodical style of Eddie Jones. They have exceeded expectations and will be even stronger next year. He is the best coach in this tournament.

After the humiliating defeat to Australia Graham Henry will send out his troops with an aggressive mindset and a blistering response is guaranteed! It will be the toughest match so far in the Tri-Nations series, both mentally and physically. The Wallabies may be fatigued after three intense Test matches in three weeks. Rugby fans and the media in New Zealand will turn very ugly should the Kiwi's fail to bounce back - they dare not lose.

South Africa has the best fixture list finishing with three home matches, two against Australia. They will hope that the two soften each other up on Saturday and come to South Africa in a fragile state of mind. They have no real injury problems; in fact, they welcome back World Cup winners Fourie Du Preez and Jacques Fourie to bolster their 30-man squad.

The Springboks are currently preparing for a soft friendly against Argentina to celebrate Nelson Mandela's 90th birthday on 8th August and play New Zealand a week later. This match will probably decide the winner of the competition. I am convinced South Africa will collect the maximum 15 points from their remaining games. Peter de Villiers, the first-ever Bruin Afrikaner coach will become a hero to both whites and blacks in his country and give his country an unparalleled sporting lift. This is why we love sport!