Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 12 September 2008 / Leave a comment

What price one final shock in 2008's Tri-Nations tournament? Well, at the moment it's about 2.92 actually. New Zealand are the odds-on favourites for the title, but the Aussies have a proud record in Queensland.

Anyone who watches Soccer AM on Sky Sports will be au fait with the term 'bouncebackability'. Australia will need to display it in spades tomorrow morning if they are to pip New Zealand to the Tri-Nations title in the winner takes-all clash in Brisbane.

Robbie Deans's Wallabies receive their long-standing rivals in Queensland's sold-out Suncorp Stadium having felt the full force of South Africa's might a fortnight ago. They were annihilated last month by a record margin in the altitude of Johannesburg, and Deans has been full-steam ahead this week in an effort to eradicate the memory of his side's painful 53-8 defeat to the Springboks.

It was a pitiful display from the Aussies, but one that highlighted the golden rule that has been learnt from this season's tournament under the Experimental Law Variations: thou shalt play rugby in the opposition's half.

Graham Henry and the All Blacks' coaching staff were taught this lesson the hard way in Sydney in round four. The all-out attacking philosophy they employed there saw them outmanoeuvred, with Australia going on to triumph 34-19. Seven days later, after a lot of soul-searching, frank talks among the squad, and the return of the world's best flanker, Richie McCaw, the Kiwis routed Australia 39-10. They went on to put in the performance of the tournament a fortnight later when they beat South Africa 19-0 in Cape Town.

It is chiefly for that consummate show of skill, forward power, and the ability to front up (remember, this is not a World Cup year!), that New Zealand currently trade in the match betting market at as short as [1.58] on Betfair. Canny traders will have noticed that the Kiwis are shorter in the outright market at [1.53], but that is because New Zealand top the table and need only draw to win the tournament.

The betting was similar for that contest in Sydney last month. Australia traded at [2.76], while their trans-Tasman rivals were at [1.64]. So should New Zealand be any shorter this time around?

If anything, Australia are weaker for this encounter than they were in Sydney, with New Zealand probably stronger. Wallaby inside-centre Berrick Barnes misses out due to a shoulder injury, which is a bitter blow to the on-field decision-making ability of the home side. Deans has decided to shuffle skipper Stirling Mortlock into 12, to form a battering-ram midfield combination with former rugby league star Ryan Cross outside him. That area of the pitch will not be for the feint-hearted, especially with human-wrecking ball Ma'a Nonu in opposition. His partner, Conrad Smith, however, could well see some heavy traffic directed his way.

Interestingly, Deans has flooded his bench with forwards, preferring to go 5-2 with his substitutes. Some see this as a weakness, as Australia may lack creativity, or the option of a Plan B, but Deans knows his onions, and he must be looking at countering what is probably the best operating pack of the three Tri-Nations teams.

New Zealand should have the superiority at the break-down, and probably the line-out, but without Barnes, Australia's kicking game will be visibly weaker. Punters must also take into consideration that New Zealand have not played a proper Test match since August 16, with the run-out against Samoa last week hardly a conditioning tool.

What seems to favour the home side though, is their superb record in Brisbane. They've lost just once in Queensland's capital in the last 11 years, albeit 13-9 to the All Blacks in 2006, and they boast a 9-4 advantage over the All Blacks in their last 13 matches on home.

With that in mind, there may be some who see the [2.92] about Australia as value, or at least the handicap line at +4.5 at [2.04]. Both certainly look big when you take those records into account.

The last time I wrote on this website about Australia I highlighted that in the rugby department, they had their best chance in years of beating South Africa in Durban, but what didn't favour them, were the stats.

It is the reverse situation this time, with New Zealand facing a tall order when you glance at their overall record in Australia, but looking by far the most likely winners on the field ahead of what promises to be a magnificent end to an intriguing and tricky Tri-Nations.