Tri-Nations Betting: Steyn can ignite Boks for victory

Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 31 July 2009 / 1 Comments

"The lynchpin argument for backing the Springboks to win this weekend’s contest at [1.59] is the presence of Morne Steyn at fly-half... The argument that he can’t ignite his backline is completely risible."

The rain is set to be a major factor as the Springboks bid to beat the All Blacks back-to-back at home for the first time since 1976. Geoffrey Riddle selects the best bets...

The weather forecasters have had their say and in all likelihood tomorrow's crucial Tri-Nations encounter between South Africa and New Zealand in Durban will be a complete washout.

As a reflection of the weather, total match points, which were pitched high by Betfair last week at 47.5, have been dropped to 38.5. And there are numerous reasons why you can expect a far better performance from Graham Henry's tourists this time round when compared to the error-strewn 28-19 defeat at Vodacom Park in Bloemfontein last week.

For a start, New Zealand are the best rugby nation in the wet. It's as simple as that. Their basic skill level is the highest in world rugby, and has been for years. On numerous occasions in this tournament they have simply ripped apart Australia and South Africa at home, and it is amazing sometimes how expansively they can play in such appalling conditions.

Durban's sea-side level is altogether an easier assignment than last Saturday's fixture at altitude. The lungs will not have to battle so hard for oxygen. What's more, the Kiwis might be fresher, as last week they had to contend with a long-haul flight from Auckland on the back of a bruising encounter with the Aussies. And to cap it all off, the lightly-campaigned back-row duo of Richie McCaw and Rodney So'oialo should be a hell of a lot sharper having come back from injuries in last week's clash.

They will have to be though, because Heinrich Brussouw, the Springbok flanker, put in an inspired performance at the breakdown in Bloemfontein. His unconventional body position, which had been the scourge of the British and Irish Lions, proved a thorn in the side of the All Blacks as well. Although the turnover count read 15-14 in favour of New Zealand, when Brussouw was at the breakdown, there was only one winner.

If Brussouw shaded the battle of the opensides, he also acted as a spearhead for a thoroughly dominant Springbok pack. New Zealand were visibly taken aback by the strength, power and purpose of the South African eight, and it was a marked contrast to their superiority against the Wallabies the week before. What makes their situation worse, however, is the call up of 21-year-old prop Owen Franks. I don't care how visually impressive Franks looks. He is a promising loosehead but seven months ago he hadn't even played a Super 14 fixture. He is thoroughly inexperienced, and given a full 80 minutes up against Tendai 'Beast' Mtawarira, he is likely to get a stern examination. The Springboks also shaded the line-out, which was made significantly easier by Andrew Hore's wayward throwing for the All Blacks.

But the lynchpin argument for backing the Springboks to win this weekend's contest at [1.59] is the presence of Morne Steyn at fly-half. Fair enough, Ruan Pienaar is a more gifted footballer. He has a more visionary attacking outlook. Nevertheless, even though Steyn has a habit of positioning himself deeper than Pienaar, the argument that he can't ignite his backline is completely risible. The Bulls scored 61 points with Steyn at No.10 in the Super 14 final - a record - and Steyn's more prosaic methods allow those outside him to shine.

There's further flesh to add to the skeleton, too. Steyn would not miss the 11 points that Pienaar did last week. His kicking at goal hammered the lid down on the Lions glorious effort in the second Test at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria. His tactical kicking from hand will also be important in keeping the All Blacks nailed down in their own half.

With Frans Steyn also in possession of a thunderous boot, I really don't see how the All Blacks can win this with a faulty lineout. No matter how much better the All Blacks will be this time around, 10-man rugby with Morne Steyn in the pivotal role will be very hard to beat, especially if they are a few kicks at goal better off than last week. I think the handicap line of South Africa giving up 5.5 points at odds-against is a fair bet.

Comments (1)

1. juan ignacio | 06 June 2010

   morne steyn is the best player of south africa