Tri-Nations Betting: South Africa v New Zealand

Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 19 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Soccer City is the venue for what should be an emotional occasion on Saturday

"The Springboks might just have enough in the tank to prevent NZ winning by more than 12 points. At anything over [2.6], the Springboks owe me."

Saturday's match between last year's tournament winners and this year's favourites will be a charged affair for a number of reasons. But where is Geoffrey Riddle putting his money?

Referee Nigel Owens has a devilishly tough job this Saturday when he officiates in the historical Tri-Nations Test between South Africa and New Zealand in Soweto. Anyone who has seen or read Invictus will understand the symbolism of a rugby match in the urban area of Johannesburg, where the majority of the population is black and therefore traditionally does not regard rugby union as 'their' sport.

If an emotionally-charged match is the start of Owens' problems, South African skipper John Smit will compound the issue when he runs out in front of 90,000 fans in Soccer City wearing the Springbok jersey for the 100th time.

What makes the atmosphere surrounding the match heighten still further, is that critics have been sniping at Graham Henry's All Black side since they defeated Australia in Christchurch a fortnight ago. The latest in a long line of staunch critics is Bob Dwyer, the 1991 World Cup-winning Wallaby coach.

Dwyer came out all guns blazing earlier this week, accusing New Zealand of illegal tactics at the breakdown. The former Leicester coach also cited statistics which showed that despite New Zealand racking up the highest number of penalties in the Tri-Nations, even if you average it out per match, they have received only one yellow card. For a complete, yet ultimately biased, breakdown of New Zealand's tactical indiscretions so far, click here.

Owens will need to be on top of his game if he is to successfully negotiate Saturday's clash. The pre-match belief that the Welshman will apply the letter to the law makes it very difficult for total points punters to get involved before the whistle goes. In South Africa's last 29 home matches at altitude, where the ball flies further, the total points make-up has averaged 55. What's probably more illustrative of high-scoring matches on the Highveld is that 21 of those 29 make-ups totalled over 45 match points.

'Overs' backers have been in clover, and although Owens presided over two of South Africa's three wins against New Zealand last year, of which both were high scoring, things may well be very different if the IRB have lent on the match official in the lead-up to this encounter.

South Africa were my disastrous outright tip at the start of the tournament, a position which is all but up in smoke. Peter de Villiers' side have conceded in excess of 100 points in their three matches so far. They don't appear to have their hearts in it, and de Villiers has been forced in midfield to partner the admirable Jean de Villiers with newby Juan de Jongh.

De Jongh scored on debut against Wales in Cardiff earlier this summer, and he showed he can defend, too, keeping tabs on British and Irish Lions hero Jamie Roberts, no less. But All Black centres Conrad Smith and Ma'a Nonu have been in scintillating form so far this season and they should once again be considered in all the try-scoring markets.

South Africa cannot play as poorly as they have in their three earlier matches in the Tri-Nations. They have had three weeks off to plan and to recuperate. The match prices make New Zealand [1.66] favourites, which cannot be argued, but the Springboks might just have enough in the tank to prevent New Zealand winning by more than 12 points if Owens can control proceedings. At anything over [2.6], the Springboks owe me.