Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 06 August 2009 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle tells us why this wil be a particularly emotional match for Australian coach Robbie Deans and one in which betting stakes should be kept low.

"This is not a fixture that I am heavily into from a betting perspective. The statistics seem to indicate that Australia are up against it with just three wins in their last nine visits to Cape Town. Similarly, winning margin punters might like to know that seven of the last 11 fixtures between these two in the Rainbow Nation have gone to South Africa by 1-12 points. My betting database also suggests that teams ranked as high as South Africa beat teams ranked similarly to Australia by around ten points, indicating the home side are a bet on the 8.5 handicap, and indeed at [1.4] in the match odds."

South Africa continue on their quest to steamroller all comers in 2009. Not content with seeing off the British and Irish Lions by two tests to one, Peter De Villiers' settled band of brothers then beat New Zealand hollow in a two Test series for the first time at home since 1976. Last week's comprehensive 31-19 victory over the All Blacks at King's Park saw the world champions confirm their status as the world's best team. South Africa top the IRB rankings and Australia are going to have to play out of their skins if they are going to pick up so much as a bonus point in Cape Town this Saturday.

The form of the Springboks has seen their price to win this year's Tri-Nations plummet, too. Before the tournament kicked off last month, I advised backing De Villiers's Lions slayers at [2.6], perhaps with a view to trading out after their crucial showdown with the Wallabies in Perth on August 29. You can trade out now at [1.56].

And it is not as if De Villiers and his coaching team have taken the easy route and played the settled combinations which won them the world cup two years ago, either. Newcomers Morne Steyn and Heinrich Brussouw were the very lynchpins of last week's success, with Brussouw contributing to an astonishing 27 turnovers. Steyn put all of is doubters to bed, scoring all his side's points in a record-breaking display.

These two players will be crucial to the outcome to this week's encounter as well. Although Ruan Pienaar is fit, Steyn keeps the No.10 jersey, and his kicking from hand - so effective at pinning back the All Blacks last week - will be the key to the end result. De Villiers relies on Steyn, as well as fullback Frans Steyn, to engineer a territorial game plan. It worked against New Zealand last week, because Frans Steyn dropped deep for any return kicks from the Kiwi back three, while wingers Bryan Habana and JP Pietersen exerted severe pressure on the opposition with their chasing pace. If there's any breakdown ball, Brussouw is on hand to mop it up.

The problem this week, however, is that Matt Giteau, Berrick Barnes, and even scrum-half Luke Burgess are all adept at kicking tactically from hand for the Wallabies. This similar approach was highlighted by Giteau earlier this week in a press conference, and total points traders would do well to sit up and take notice. Australia do not lack confidence in their lineout, unlike New Zealand, and both teams could easily slit each other's throats with ranging kicks and dull lineout contests taking up a lot of time.
Betfair has pitched its total points market at 41.5, which doesn't give pre-match players much room for manoeuvre, but with both sides likely to be camped in either 22 for most of the match, this is very much one for those who like to trade in-running. A strategy that may pay off is to go high pre-match, and trade out during the interval.

Australia are proven to be quick off the mark away from home under coach Robbie Deans. On the road, the Wallabies have scored 83 points in the first half to 73 in the second half under the guidance of the New Zealander. This has prompted some commentators to question the fitness levels of the Aussies, but whatever the reason, it was for all to see in their sole Tri Nations outing this season. Australia led New Zealand 13-10 in Auckland in the opening fixture of this year's tournament, but went down 22-16. South Africa have played much the same way this season, barring that sensational comeback in the second Test.

This is not a fixture that I am heavily into from a betting perspective. The statistics seem to indicate that Australia are up against it with just three wins in their last nine visits to Cape Town. Similarly, winning margin punters might like to know that seven of the last 11 fixtures between these two in the Rainbow Nation have gone to South Africa by 1-12 points. My betting database also suggests that teams ranked as high as South Africa beat teams ranked similarly to Australia by around ten points, indicating the home side are a bet on the 8.5 handicap, and indeed at [1.4] in the match odds.

But do not underestimate the power of emotion to scupper you handicap punters out there. Deans's father, Tony, tragically died last weekend, and that extra bit of motivation by the players to give their grieving coach anything to smile about at such a difficult time is worth taking into consideration. These are no ordinary circumstances, and as such, it is very difficult to get a hold on the fixture from a punting perspective.