Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 17 September 2009 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle gives his support to the NZRU and urges All Blacks fans to do the same. He also flags up a shrewd long term investment and backs the home side to prevail in this weekend's Tri-Nations clash...

"New Zealand beat the Wallabies in Sydney earlier this Tri-Nations campaign and it's difficult to see why the home side should be any bigger than [1.5]."

It is amazing. Ever since New Zealand won the World Cup in 1989 for the first and only time, the sole criticism of the team has been that they peaked in the middle of the four-year cycle and bombed out when it mattered most.

We all know the tale of New Zealand's subsequent failures, which culminated in their ignominious exit during the 2007 tournament at the hands of France at the quarter-final stage.
That defeat, mixed with an exodus of players abroad, has led the current coaching panel of Graham Henry, Wayne Smith and Steve Hansen to experiment a little and consolidate their squad. Suddenly, after two home defeats this season, by France and the world champion Springboks, the New Zealand public is baying for the heads of that triumvirate, with particular focus on Hansen, the forwards coach.

The coaching trio has been given contracts until the end of the 2011 tournament, which the All Blacks are hosting. The NZRU have seen the bigger picture, and yet the fans have not. It took Sir Clive Woodward a World Cup exit and two cycles to craft his World Cup-winning squad. On Betfair, New Zealand are an easy to back [2.38] for the 2011 extravaganza, which considering their fearsome home record down the years, looks a significant long-term investment.

And for this weekend's Tri-Nations dead rubber, the bigger picture, and the All Blacks' record at home sees them equally backable to see off Australia in the New Zealand capital. Those who are responsible for framing the early market on Betfair about Saturday's match in the Wellington 'Cake Tin' look to be taking a huge risk by laying the home side at [1.62]. It looks a cracking price. New Zealand have beaten Australia at home in nine successive matches, and on each occasion it was by more than three points. They beat the Wallabies in Sydney earlier this Tri-Nations campaign for good measure, and it is difficult to see why the home side should be any bigger than [1.5].

Graham Henry has made seven changes to the line-up which was edged out by South Africa in Hamilton last week. The most eye-catching selction though is in the 10-12 axis where the attempt to link up Dan Carter and Stephen Donald back-fired horribly. I must admit, I thought it would work, but it really didn't. Donald was hauled off in the 50th minute, with the score becoming 29-12 to the Springboks immediately after his departure. From then on, it was up to Carter to boss the game on his own, and it was interesting to see New Zealand score 17 points to South Africa's three from that juncture.

The other important change to the line-up is in the forwards where Neemia Tialata shores up the scrummaging power, and a chance is taken on Tim Donnelly to correct the All Blacks' malfunctioning line-out. Last week the line-out gave the ball away five times, which at Test level is criminal. Loose-head Tialata will be key to neutralising the threat of Aussie tight-head prop Benn Robinson, who monstered Springbok skipper John Smit repeatedly in both Perth and Brisbane. To my mind, New Zealand dominated Australia in Sydney when they last clashed, and Tialata can only enhance that apparent advantage.

This is not a vintage All Black team by any stretch of the imagination. And what's more, they have scored only 12 tries in their eight Tests so far this season. But the Wallabies have showed countless times the ability to throw away matches from strong positions, simply because they are a young and inexperienced side. Obviously, that will change in time, but they showed a horrible naivety and received a good dose of ill-fortune in their 22-16 defeat in Auckland in round one of this tournament.

New Zealand are no world beaters at the moment, but the two-point home defeat to the world champions last week was no more than last year in the same fixture in Dunedin. On the back of that performance, New Zealand demolished the Wallabies 39-10 in Auckland. This is the mid-point in the four-year World Cup cycle, and even at their lowest ebb, the All Blacks really should be trading at around five-point favourites. The [1.62] looks a bargain.

Tags: Australia, Geoffrey Riddle, Graham Henry, New Zealand, The All Blacks, The Wallabies, Tri-Nations Rugby Betting, Tri-Nations Rugby Odds, Tri-Nations Rugby Tips