Tri-Nations Betting: Australia v South Africa

Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 04 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"It may seem churlish to deny Peter de Villiers’ men their moment of glory when they seem on the cusp of winning their first Tri-Nations tournament for five years, but they face a very different proposition against a rejuvenated Australia in Brisbane on Saturday."

Despite being on the verge of winning their first Tri-Nations title for half-a-decade, Geoffrey Riddle believes that South Africa remain poor travellers and the home side will be a stronger force on Saturday...

South Africa's impressive 32-25 victory in Perth last week in front of a largely partisan South African crowd has not thrown off the fact they are poor travellers in the Tri-Nations.

It may seem churlish to deny Peter de Villiers' men their moment of glory when they seem on the cusp of winning their first Tri-Nations tournament for five years, but they face a very different proposition against a rejuvenated Australia in Brisbane on Saturday.

The Wallabies were put under serious pressure early on last week as the Springboks targeted their patched-up centre pairing after Berrick Barnes had to miss out due to concussion. Adam Ashley-Cooper, Ryan Cross and even Matt Giteau were all guilty in defence when South Africa scored two tries off their scrum by targeting the centre channels.

The form of Giteau continues to be a significant concern for Wallaby supporters. The Aussie talisman missed two penalty attempts from four, and his hurried drop-kick conversion miss in front of the posts smacked of unprofessionalism. Something seems rotten in the state of Giteau's mind right now and it must be hoped that replacement scrum-half, Will Genia, can alleviate the pressure that Giteau was under due to the poor service from the replaced Luke Burgess.

Wallaby coach Robbie Deans is buoyed on his 50th birthday by the return at inside-centre of Berrick Barnes, who will certainly shore up the defensive line. His range of attacking skills, and the fact that he is fully-interchangeable with Giteau will also help matters.

And then there is the Brisbane factor. South Africa's only successes on Australian soil in this competition have been in Perth. Although it is a bit rich to expect the Wallabies to repeat their 49-0 triumph when the two teams last played at Suncorp Stadium in 2006, the fact remains that South Africa have lost their last six encounters there going back to 1971.

South Africa currently trade at [1.56] in the match betting, which is shorter than last week when they initially traded at around [1.6].

It is easy to fall into the trap and say that Australia finished with the greater momentum last week though. The Springboks led 32-13 in the 67th minute, and although Australia finished with a late rattle, no-one can possibly surmise that the Aussies have the greater fitness levels. The match was over as a contest, and by the final whistle, South Africa had put in over twice as many tackles as their opponents. They had simply put in more work early on.

Throughout this Tri-Nations campaign it has been startling how many rugby punters and pundits alike have said that all South Africa do is prey on their opposition's mistakes. At Test match level, most teams have similar skill sets, and the two most important ingredients of being successful at the highest level is fitness and the ability to think clearly under pressure.

South Africa have both of these attributes in spades, and what's more, their ultra-experienced side brings a level-headedness when things start to go wrong. The other thing that seems to be in their favour is the presence of northern hemisphere referee Wayne Barnes. Last week De Villiers was non-plussed about the decisions of Kiwi referee Bryce Lawrence, particularly at scrum time. The only occasion this season that the Springboks have been beaten was when Australian referee Stuart Dickinson blew the whistle in the dead rubber against the Lions in Johannesburg. It may not be much of an edge, but it's an edge.

The Springboks will be remarkably dangerous here, and may well win. Things seem much more in Australia's favour in Brisbane than last week though, and I can't help thinking that, at some point, South Africa might trade a lot longer than their current price.