Tri-Nations Betting: All Blacks might have to come from behind against Aussies

Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 21 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

"New Zealand might win but I’m not sure that they are a conventional bet at [2.04] in the match odds market."

Geoffrey Riddle knows which side he expects to come out on top when Australian meet New Zealand on Saturday. But it isn't quite that straightforward...

Everything points to a New Zealand win in this weekend's crucial showdown between Australia and New Zealand in Sydney, but I just can't bring myself to back the All Blacks pre-match.

There is something niggling away at me, something preventing me from siding with Graham Henry's side. Perhaps I need the Betfair Contrarian to step in and sort it all out. Whichever way you look at it, New Zealand have a good record against Australia in Oz. They have won five of the last 11 there and overall, New Zealand have won 10 of the last 12 encounters between the two sides.

Sure, Australia won 34-19 in Sydney just 12 months ago, but the All Blacks were without their talisman and skipper Richie McCaw. When McCaw returned for the second clash in Brisbane two months later, the All Blacks held on 28-24.

And the pussyfooting around that New Zealand have been doing this season looks set to stop. Coach Graham Henry had a clear-the-air session a week ago, in which some pretty harsh criticisms were thrown both ways between the management team and the players. McCaw and Dan Carter said afterwards that it was probably the most frank discussion that either of them had ever been party to during their international careers.

And if you need any more overwhelming evidence that Australia are in trouble this weekend, you only have to read the synopsis of ace rugby analyst Spiro Zavos in the latter half of his column in the Sydney Morning Herald this week. Zavos has spent many moons studying rugby and he is the most trenchant, honest and admirable rugby observer I have ever read. If you can't be bothered to read it, he basically highlights Australia's shocking ill-discipline and illustrates that they give away far too many kickable penalties.

Kiwi fly-half Dan Carter returns to the international fold after his Achilles' injury during his time in Perpignan. He starts for the All Blacks for the first time since appearing against England in the autumn, although he has played three matches for Canterbury in preparation. He teams up with Luke McAlister, who replaces Ma'a Nonu to create a backline full of creative ability and attacking derring-do.

What Carter and McAlister significantly bring to the table, however, is a tactical kicking game. Australia have a backline full of kickers, with Matt Giteau, Berrick Barnes and scrum-half Luke Burgess all able to spot a gap and place the ball accordingly. With both sides struggling markedly against the might of South Africa's lineout during the early stages of this tournament, Barnes even went so far as to predict that both sides would kick for field position.

"Kicking's going to be a part of it no matter how much we try and say we want it to be running rugby," he told a press conference this week. There's going to be an element of kicking to the game because field position - as we've seen with the way the laws are now - plays a big part in winning games."

This is the first reason why I think that although New Zealand might win, I'm not sure they are a conventional bet at [2.04] in the match betting market.

Both teams will look to kick for field position, and with neither side wanting to kick it out and expose their malfunctioning lineouts, the contest could easily become attritional, with flankers George Smith and McCaw duelling for supremacy on the ground.

Australia certainly have the capacity to cause an upset here. I suspect that they will blast out of the blocks and take an early lead - they have been ahead at the break in four of their last five matches against the All Blacks.

That would suggest that New Zealand are a lay pre-match, a position which I shall be revising as the game goes on with the idea of trading out and backing them at a much bigger price with around 20 minutes to go.