Tri-Nations 2010 Betting: Everything you need to know

Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 08 July 2010 / Leave a Comment

South Africa celebrate last year's Tri-Nations triumph

"For those of you who simply want to have a bet, and collect when the tournament ends in September, South Africa look overpriced at [2.3]."

Geoffrey Riddle provides an introduction to the annual southern hemisphere rugby bonanza. Are New Zealand deserved market leaders or should the Spring Boks be backed to follow up last year's success? Could the Aussies cause an upset?

The first port of call when pricing up this year's Tri-Nations is the Australian TAB. The Aussie domestic Tote make reigning world champions South Africa the [2.15] favourites for the southern hemisphere extravaganza. New Zealand are [2.25], while the Wallabies are an unconsidered [5.0].

On Betfair, however, the betting is the other way around, with New Zealand the market leaders at [2.28] and South Africa at [2.32]. It is a curious situation, and one which probably reflects the advantage some punters feel the All Blacks enjoy with regards to this year's draw.

As you can see from the fixture list below, Graham Henry's side play their first two matches at home - a double-header against the Springboks - before they ignite the away section of their fixture list against the Australians in Melbourne. This could mean that the All Blacks will take their impressive form and build up a head of steam in the tournament.

Trading the outright Tri-Nations market is very difficult, purely because so much rests on the crunch encounter in Auckland this weekend. For those of you who simply want to have a bet, and collect when the tournament ends in September, South Africa look overpriced. I'd have the reigning champions at [2.0], New Zealand at [2.5], with Australia nearly [10.0].

To my mind the draw is immaterial. In the last 10 years five winners of the Tri-Nations have started off with their first two games at home, five with their first two games away. The most important aspect of this year's fixture list is that of their three home games - all of which are at altitude - South Africa look more than capable of winning, whereas New Zealand could struggle to prevent a Springbok victory in the Land Of The Long White Cloud.

Despite his often bizarre press conferences and weird outbursts, the idiosyncratic Peter de Villiers had led his side to three straight victories against New Zealand, two of which were in the All Blacks' back yard 12 months ago. And if you look at the Super 14 this season, South African teams wiped the floor with their Kiwi counterparts. The Stormers thrashed all five New Zealand sides by double-figure margins, while the champion Bulls saw off four out of five. To put it in simple terms, Springbok rugby is currently leagues ahead of New Zealand's.

De Villiers is without the world's best scrum-half in Fourie du Preez, who undergoes shoulder surgery, and star full-back Francois Steyn. It is almost impossible to dress up the absence of these two players as a positive. However, if the Springboks are to adapt their game-plan from the kick-chase strategy that worked so well last year to something more expansive and possession-based, it undoubtedly helps that those two tactical kickers miss out.

For those who missed this year's Super 14 action, tweaks in southern hemisphere rugby mean that the attacking team now has a considerable advantage at the breakdown. So if the Springboks boot the ball down the pitch like they did last season, the All Blacks will counter-attack, particularly from rucks, which now provide an excellent launch-pad for second-phase attack against a defence pulled out of shape from the kick-chase.

The ever-wily Henry has been teed up his side to execute tactics that are tuned in to these new law adaptations. New Zealand have tried to mix an unyielding defence with an attacking strategy based on phase-possession this season. Both aspects of the All Blacks' game clicked into gear last month in Dunedin, where the Welsh were routed 42-9. Neither aspect worked as well a week later in Hamilton, but Henry showed his hand there when Corey Jane's 24th-minute try was the result of 13 phases.

Australia have the backs to execute such a strategy also but as we saw against England, injuries to props Benn Robinson and Ben Alexander hamstrung their scrum. The Wallabies showed last year in Brisbane that when they have everything in their favour, they can be devastating. They dominated South Africa, running out 21-6 winners. But virtually nothing has gone right for coach Robbie Deans who has failed to work out how to shoe-horn Quade Cooper, Berrick Barnes and the under-performing Matt Giteau into the same backline. The core of the squad look unfit, as proved by the fact that they have scored fewer points in the second half than in the first in their last three fixtures.

Perhaps worst of all, Deans still has not managed to get to the bottom of Australia's quite disgraceful away form. The Wallabies boast just a single road victory in the Tri-Nations under Deans' guidance - at sea-level Durban in 2008 - and with two altitude matches against the Springboks, and one against New Zealand in Christchurch where they are eight losses from their last nine, they look seriously up against it.

2010 Tri-Nations fixture list

July
Saturday, July 10 Venue
New Zealand vs South Africa Eden Park, Auckland
Saturday, July 17 Venue
New Zealand vs South Africa Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Saturday, July 24 Venue
Australia vs South Africa Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Saturday, July 31 Venue
Australia vs New Zealand Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
August
Saturday, August 7 Venue
New Zealand vs Australia AMI Stadium, Christchurch
Sunday, August 22 Venue
South Africa vs New Zealand Coca-Cola Park, Johannesburg
Sunday, August 29 Venue
South Africa vs Australia Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
September
Sunday, September 5 Venue
South Africa vs Australia Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein
Saturday, September 11 Venue
Australia vs New Zealand ANZ Stadium, Sydney