The Betfair Contrarian: Why South Africa won't win the Tri Nations

Tri-Nations / The Betfair Contrarian / 06 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

John Smit and co won't be smiling when the Tri Nations comes to a close, says the Betfair Contrarian

"The strange way that the fixture list has been constructed forces the Springboks to play their last three matches away from home. That doesn't bode well for Peter de Villiers side considering they have won just two of their last 22 Tri Nations away games and just four in the tournament's history."

They may have won their first two games but the Contrarian sees the South Africans as a huge lay in the Tri Nations betting. Here's why...

The Contrarian is a man who admires fairness and sportsmanship, so in spite of South Africa's strong start in the Tri Nations ([1.51] favourites on Betfair to win), he is of the belief that the eye-gougers shall not overcome. The Tri Nations comprises the three best teams in the world (South Africa, New Zealand and Australia) and everyone meets an illogical three times. Here's why the Springboks wont last the distance:

History suggests they will come unstuck
Prior to this year's tournament, South Africa had the worst record of all three Tri Nations countries. They have lifted the trophy just twice and won only 21 of their 56 matches. The Springboks have been victorious just once in the last decade and that 2004 triumph was the least convincing in the competition's 13-year history. All three teams won two and lost two of their four games but South Africa were crowned champions with just 11 points because they picked up one more bonus point than Australia.

It's too early to write New Zealand off
There's no doubting the significance of South Africa's two impressive early victories over New Zealand, especially as the Springboks had won just four of their last 19 encounters with them. However, the All Blacks have won the Tri Nations in each of the last four years - a tournament record - and have plenty of time to overturn the current four-point deficit. They had a similarly slow start last year, losing two of their first three matches but raised the bar to win their final three emphatically beating Australia 39-10 and South Africa 19-0 in Cape Town.

The Springboks needed some bonus points
In each of the two years where South Africa triumphed 1998 and 2004 they scored four or more tries in one of their victories over New Zealand to claim a bonus point. They failed to do that in either of their recent home wins over the All Blacks and are even less likely to achieve the feat in Hamilton when they meet next month, for two reasons. Firstly, they have won on just two of their last 18 visits to New Zealand and secondly, they last beat the All Blacks three times in succession in 1976.

South Africa's last three games are all away
The strange way that the fixture list has been constructed forces the Springboks to play their last three matches away from home. That doesn't bode well for Peter de Villiers side considering they have won just two of their last 22 Tri Nations away games and just four in the tournament's history. New Zealand on the other hand end with two successive home games, of which they have won 17 of their last 18 in the Tri Nations and 35 of their last 37 in all competitions.

Their record against Australia isn't great
You can excuse Springboks fans for thinking that after beating nine-time champions New Zealand twice, everything else should be a formality, but their record against Australia suggests that their upcoming three meetings with the Wallabies definitely wont be a stroll on the veldt. South Africa have lost three of their last four against Australia and have won just once Down Under in their last 13 attempts.

South Africa are immune to the Lions rub
In 2001, the British and Irish Lions toured Australia, who then went on to claim the Tri Nations. Similarly, New Zealand won in 2005 after being visited by Sir Clive Woodward and Co. However, after the Lions went to South Africa in 1997, the Springboks finished 11 points behind New Zealand, suggesting that they gained nothing from playing highly-competitive matches weeks before the Tri Nations. That theory is supported by the fact they were far more impressive a year later, winning the tournament with a 100% record.