Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 16 July 2009 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle tells you everything you need to know about the 2009 Tri-Nations and makes his picks for this weekend's big kick-off...

The British and Irish Lions tour of 2009 has given punters a real insight into the abilities and shortcomings of Peter de Villiers' world champion Springboks ahead of what looks an increasingly competitive Tri-Nations tournament. The yearly contest between Australia, New Zealand and South Africa looks a very tight affair this year, but if we learnt one thing from this year's Lions extravaganza, it was that familiarity breeds victory.

South Africa managed to hold on at various points during the first two Test matches because they knew collectively that they would, and could, pull through. They have been playing long enough together to be able to look within themselves and play without making too many mistakes under intense pressure. By the time of the third Test against the inspirational Lions, the tourists had sufficiently gelled to produce some dazzling rugby against a much-changed Springboks side, who perhaps didn't care as much as they did in the opening two Tests.

And when you look at the past two Lions tours, both New Zealand in 2005 and Australia in 2001 went on to win the Tri-Nations after seeing off the Lions. Why? Because they had got those tough internationals under their belts and those squads were far better prepared for the rigours of this tournament than their opposition.

And the Tri-Nations could easily be won by early August. As you can see at the bottom of the page, New Zealand face Australia this Saturday at Eden Park having played some appalling rugby against France and Italy recently. Graham Henry's All Blacks were shocking in those early season contests, and it is no surprise to see that they have drifted from around [2.25] in the tournament outright market to their current level of [2.9].

The All Blacks must then play twice in South Africa, and in Sydney after that. They look massively up against it in the early rounds, which is why the Springboks look a fair price to build up a head of steam at their expense. South Africa look perfect back-to-lay material. They play their first three games at home, and their first away fixture is against Australia in the Springbok-friendly city of Perth, where the Aussies have always struggled to subdue them.

At [2.6] there should be significant mileage in backing the Lion slayers, particularly as their only match in New Zealand is in Hamilton, and not in any of the comparatively mega stadiums such as Eden Park, Jade Stadium, or in the capital, Wellington.

I do think that all three sides are very closely matched on paper, which should throw up plenty of opportunities for in-running punters over the next few weeks. Although the All Blacks have won this competition an astonishing nine times to Australia and South Africa's two each, that draw just looks too difficult for them.

There are really only two ways of approaching this weekend's first clash in Auckland. Statistically, it happens that New Zealand are unbeaten at Eden Park since 1994, which is a consecutive winning streak of 19 matches. Now to me, that is impressive, but I'm not really sure it means very much.

The other angle is to look how the game is likely to pan out. What is potentially significant is that Richie McCaw returns to lead the Kiwis. It will be his first start since the Crusaders' semi-final loss to the Bulls in May. McCaw has also played just eight games this season, which means that the All Blacks' talisman is in for a stern test. What's more, Australian coach Robbie Deans has decided to pick two open-side flankers on the bench, in addition to George Smith, who starts, which means that McCaw is going to receive thorough going over. And that has been the key to Australia's excellent form so far this season. Deans has mixed a pacey back-row with a lightning fast backline, which feeds off the turnovers created by the flankers. McCaw therefore plays a pivotal role in Saturday's encounter, and given the likely state of his fitness, and the opposition that lines up against him, he is more likely to fail in his task than succeed.

Early Betfair punters have made the visitors a [2.6] shot, but I'm pretty sure that the price is likely to drift come game time. I'd be looking to back Australia at around [2.9] if I could get it, but more importantly, I'd like to be with them on the handicap line, which at those prices equals about a five-point start. If there's six around on the exchange, I'll bite your arm off.

This year's fixture list:

Tri-Nations 2009

New Zealand v Australia Auckland Sat, 18 Jul
South Africa v New Zealand Bloemfontein Sat, 25 Jul
South Africa v New Zealand Durban Sat, 1 Aug
South Africa v Australia Cape Town Sat, 8 Aug
Australia v New Zealand Sydney Sat, 22 Aug
Australia v South Africa Perth Sat, 29 Aug
Australia v South Africa Brisbane Sat, 5 Sep
New Zealand v South Africa Hamilton Sat, 12 Sep
New Zealand v Australia Wellington Sat, 19 Sep