Tri-Nations Betting: Australia v South Africa

Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 27 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

"The match betting looks dicey - a better avenue to profit may be to consider trading the total points market."

South Africa 's first foreign assignment of this year's Tri-Nations gets underway this Saturday, but Peter de Villiers' Springboks will have to throw off their terrible away record if they are to triumph against Australia in Perth, writes Geoffrey Riddle.

The world champions have had the perfect start to this year's competition having won their first three games. Yet with just two wins on the road in their last 20 Tri-Nations fixtures, it is surprising to see South Africa as short as 8-15 with some high street layers.

To be fair, before I had looked at the match betting prices, I had made South Africa between four to seven point favourites. Betfair layers on the other hand are not so sure, and they make the Springboks [1.62], which roughly translates as three to four-point jollies.

Looking at Australia's chances on paper, it would seem that Betfair layers are giving a bit too much away. The Wallabies have lost their last five Tri-Nations fixtures in succession. They come into this game without skipper Stirling Mortlock, who is out for the rest of the tournament. They are also missing key lineout operator Nathan Sharpe, and their classy inside-centre, Berrick Barnes, who suffered concussion in the narrow 19-18 loss to New Zealand last week.

The loss of Barnes is a particular blow, purely because Australia's kicking game will be severely compromised. Rugby league convert Ryan Cross comes in at outside centre, which forces the versatile Adam Ashley-Cooper in to the No.12 jersey. It's a decent attacking combination, but neither is going to land a kick from hand on a coin 60 meters down the field. The poor form of star fly-half Matt Giteau must rate a serious concern as well.

The fixture takes place in Perth, too, which houses a legendary South African population, who translate their passion for rugby into bums on seats at the Subiaco Oval. This will barely be a home game for the Aussies, and like last week when New Zealand were flagged up as an in-running bet in the 60th minute, a profit may well be gained by utilising similar in-running tactics.

Australia look unfit, and there are stats in the book to suggest that they are not staying on in the final quarter of their matches this season. They have scored more points in the first half than in the second in six of their last seven games this summer. Last week's catastrophic loss to New Zealand saw them 12-3 up at the break. It was a similar story against the All Blacks in Auckland in game one, when the Wallabies led 13-10 at half-time before succumbing 22-16.

I think the match betting looks dicey though, and a better avenue to profit may be to consider trading the total points market. Australia have scored just three tries in their three Tri-Nations outings this year. They will have to be more proactive this week due to their kicking deficiencies, and as they ran the ball far more last week, a similar game-plan is envisaged in Perth.

South Africa, on the other hand, are likely to continue with their kick-chase strategy that has served them so well this season, and which sees them play to their strengths. Fly-half Morne Steyn will look to control the game by kicking into the Wallaby half and playing a territory-based game. Points, therefore, could be in short supply, because Australia's defence held up well at crucial times last week.

Although the market is not up yet, I would be looking to trade under anything down to [42.5]. If total points are pitched at anything lower than [42.5], you'd have to consider it no bet material until it gets into the 30s.