New Zealand v South Africa: Tri-Nations betting preview

Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 15 July 2010 / Leave a Comment

John Smit has been talking tough this week - expect better from the Springboks

"There is no greater way to attack in rugby than to off-load out of the tackle. It instantaneously creates space, and at least eight times last week New Zealand kept the ball alive whenever the Springboks managed to get hold of one of their players. "

South Africa must improve to avoid another thumping at the hands of the All Blacks and that means running the ball, says Geoffrey Riddle

When England defeated the Wallabies last month in Stadium Australia, manager Martin Johnson was at pains to point out that it was the more 'yeomanry' aspects of his side's game that won the day. Johnson has long been a believer that pressure is the single most important factor in winning international rugby matches. And to a certain extent, he is right, but last week New Zealand showed against South Africa that the best way to put teams under pressure is to run the ball and off-load - the cavalier approach to England's more round-head rugby.

There is no greater way to attack in rugby than to off-load out of the tackle. It instantaneously creates space, and at least eight times last week New Zealand kept the ball alive whenever the Springboks managed to get hold of one of their players. Now that the laws have been tweaked in a manner that gives the attacking team an advantage, it is doubly important to stick to this sort of strategy. And if South Africa chose to ignore last week's embarrassing lesson in Eden Park, where they lost 32-12, the All Blacks will annihilate them in Wellington.

Before last week's fixture all the signs were there that the rather bizarre South Africa coach Peter de Villiers had understood the problem that lay before him. The chief architects of last season's kick-chase strategy were left out. Scrum-half Fourie du Preez was undergoing surgery for a shoulder complaint, while Frans Steyn was simply not considered. Yet for some reason, South Africa declined to run the ball.

If you look at the amount of kicking that was done, there is very little in it - New Zealand kicked 26 times from hand to South Africa's 29. But it is the passing stats where we begin to see the marked difference in performance last week. New Zealand passed the ball almost twice as much as their bitter rivals. Graham Henry had clearly been working hard at this during the summer tour matches against the northern hemisphere, and it paid off with his side making over double the amount of meters with the ball and offloading four times as much. It was if the Springboks were a parody of themselves, as if they had been wheeled out in front of a crowd and told that it would be enough to simply play the rugby that made them Tri-Nations champions last year.

They cannot be so bad again. And it is not so much as hope for a balanced contest that suggests the Springboks will improve, but more the words of their skipper John Smit.

The Springboks' leader was disgusted with the performance of Bakkies Botha, who head-butted scrum-half Jimmy Cowan to earn a lenient yellow card, and in the pre-match press conference earlier this week he suggested that Botha's ego was responsible for the disgraceful incident. If anything it sounded as if Smit wanted Botha, who sits out the rest of the tournament thanks to the citing commissioner, to be absent from this week's encounter. He said: "The fact of the matter is that in a team sport, you can't afford to have too many big egos. If you have one that is outside the team ethos, it hurts a team." The suggestion is that his team will not be so overconfident this week with Dannie Roussouw in the engine room instead of Botha.

Last week I pointed out that total match points were too low at 43.5. Thankfully, Tony Woodcock's burrowing try at the death made that come about, and it is interesting to see on Betfair that the quote has dropped to 39.5 this week.

In the 2006 Tri-Nations, New Zealand flattened South Africa, beating them at Loftus Versfeld 45-26. A week later in the Royal Bakofeng Stadium the handicap line that the Springboks received had doubled and yet Jake White's side managed a 21-20 victory.

I'm not suggesting that South Africa will win in Wellington this Saturday, but there is every chance that they will improve. And if they do managed to threaten the tryline this time, the total points are likely to once again bust the 'overs.'