Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 15 August 2008 / Leave a comment

Questions of representation have arisen to shroud the big game build-up in controversy and put the Boks at a disadvantage against their old foes, says Geoffrey Riddle.

When New Zealand touched down in South Africa ahead of this weekend's Tri-Nations showdown in Cape Town, a welcoming party in t-shirts with "All Blacks Forever" printed on the back turned out at the airport.

This was not a crowd of ex-pat Kiwis who lined up to catch a glimpse of their home-grown heroes, but a section of the local black population that holds the All Blacks in higher esteem than the Springboks, who many of them believe still represent all that was bad about their country under apartheid.

It is estimated that around 20 per cent of the capacity crowd at Newlands tomorrow will be supporting Graham Henry's tourists, which goes some way to explaining why New Zealand have such an extraordinary record under the shadow of Table Mountain, and why perhaps they are so short in the match betting market at [2.18]. South Africa have won only three of the last eight contests between the two there, and they only snuck home with two second-half penalties to win 22-16 the last time the two played there in 2005.

What has potentially made matters worse for the home side is that coach Peter de Villiers has shorn his team of his form black players. He has substituted scrum-half Ricky Januarie, who scored the winner against the All Blacks in Dunedin in week two, with World Cup winner Fourie du Preez, and full-back Conrad Jantjes with the Prince Charming look-a-like Percy Montgomery, who wins his 100th cap.
De Villiers is under fire for these selections, and with just four black players in the starting line-up - centre Adrian Jacobs, prop Tendai Mtawarira and the two flyers JP Pietersen and Bryan Habana - Cedrick Frolick, vice-chairman of the parliamentary sport portfolio committee, was fuming. "Is the team that has been selected of such a nature that it will ensure the support of most South Africans?", he raged earlier in the week. "This creates questions about where we are heading as a team. I know Peter wants to win the Tri-Nations, but he must realise he will be measured according to his ability to transform the team and to make it representative of the country's population for the 2011 World Cup."

Delicate stuff indeed and one that does not provide a perfect backdrop for preparing for a Test that effectively will rule out the loser in this year's race for Tri-Nations glory.

The presence of Montgomery and Du Preez suggests that South Africa will be concentrating on launching the ball down into New Zealand's half with the boot, and playing a territory-based game. It was something that New Zealand have also been concentrating on in training this week, and kicking coach Mick Bryne has reportedly earned his wage this past few days.

Although the new ELVs were brought in to try to encourage running rugby, it seems to have produced the opposite effect. Territory has become far more important in this Tri-Nations series, particularly as a free-kick given away in your own half not only stems your momentum, but also creates a valuable attacking platform for the opposing side. Teams are therefore kicking for field position in play, and not to touch.

Henry, who always loves a statistic, mentioned in a press conference earlier this week that in New Zealand's 34-19 loss to Australia three weeks ago, the ball was in play for 39 minutes, which is up from an average of around 25 minutes in the same fixture last year.
A fair case can be made for the tourists, particularly given the levels of support they will receive, the rest period they have been allowed, and the fact that in their last 12 losses away from home in this competition they have gained a bonus-point in nine of them.

That final point may actually hold the key to the whole Test, however, because although things are not entirely as South African backers would want it, what with the political in-fighting surrounding the team's preparations and the loss of lock Bakkies Botha to injury, South Africa are still the No. 1 ranked side in the world, and should be better than the odds suggest at [1.92] to record a narrow win against their old foes.

Tags: Australia, Bryan Habana, New Zealand, Rugby betting, South Africa, tri-nations betting