Australia v South Africa: Tri-Nations Betting Preview

Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 22 July 2010 / Leave a Comment

Peter de Villiers has much to ponder - not least his team's indiscipline

"Australia scraped past the Irish, and levelled a two-match series against England, so they're clearly no world beaters."

After a double defeat against New Zealand, consecutive titles look unlikely for the Spring Boks. They have a terrible record in Brisbane too, so is the market right to make Australia favourites to win on Saturday? Geoffrey Riddle decides.

Mathematics teachers always demand that you 'show your workings' whenever you get an answer correct. It is the bane of all maths students, but for punters the process is very important to show how you arrive at a bet. We all know that in the past we have placed a trade, believing that one thing would happen, and then something very different happened only for your bet to cop anyway.

And that is the situation this Saturday when Australia seem to have a decent chance of outpointing South Africa in Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium. The layers are not giving too much away by making Robbie Deans' side [1.87], with the reigning champions priced at [2.26], considering South Africa were five-point favourites for this fixture last year. That Australia won by a resounding 21-6, is neither here nor there, because the teams are totally different this time and, what's more, the laws have changed dramatically, too.

The Springboks have been lambasted for their double defeat at the hands of the All Blacks this past fortnight. While it is true that coach Peter de Villiers needs to seriously have a look at his side's reaction to refereeing decisions by northern hemisphere arbiters, what he needs to address most is his side's atrocious disciplinary record. Almost a third of the 63 points scored by New Zealand in Auckland and Wellington were snatched when South Africa had a man in the bin. It's an incredible advantage to have given away, and one that has seriously threatened their ambition of a back-to-back Tri-Nations success. They are the [9.8] outsider of three in the outright market.

But if you look at last week's match in-depth, you will see that South Africa were not nearly as bad as some analysts are making out. South Africa kicked from hand less than New Zealand, which highlights that it was their chasing game that was poor, and not necessarily their ability to kick accurately. Where in Auckland the Springboks failed to cut through the All Black defence at all, last week they made a vast improvement in the number of clean breaks, passes, defenders beaten and meters run. Their lineout was impeccable when compared to the All Black shambles of four lost from 10 throw-ins. Even at the breakdown, South Africa were not far shy in the turnover count, all of which suggests that New Zealand are up to speed with the new interpretations of the laws and lead the field by some margin.

South Africa's terrible record in Brisbane has been flagged up countless times this week, reading six defeats at Lang Park, or Suncorp Stadium, since the 60s. They lost the only fixture to be played at the city's Gabba in 2002, and they lost also at Ballymore in the early 90s. This record highlights, however, the general malaise under which South Africa have travelled to the East coast of Australia for years. The Springboks have lost all six since the Millennium in Sydney's Stadium Australia, as well as their only game in Melbourne, too.

And if you go down a level, Australian teams dominated their South African rivals as well. The Reds won four from five against South African teams, losing only by 30-28 to the Sharks in Durban, as did the Brumbies. The Waratahs won all three of their home games against SA opposition to boot.

South Africa scored their two tries in this tournament once they had 15 men on the pitch and had cottoned on to the fact that they needed to run the ball. They have only scored two or more tries in New Zealand in just over half of their games there in the last 10 years, which shows what a good effort that was last week.

Australia are boosted by the return of loose-head prop Benn Robinson and lock Nathan Sharpe, which is a major bonus to their scrum after the performances against Ireland and England during the summer. Australia scraped past the Irish, and levelled a two-match series against England during the summer Tests, so they're clearly no world beaters at the moment.

South Africa may well lose against Australia this Saturday, but I don't think the home side offer any value at all. If you look at my workings, though, I wouldn't expect things to continue in the same vein once the tournament moves to the Rainbow Nation in a few weeks.