Australia v New Zealand: Tri-Nations Betting Preview

Tri-Nations / Geoffrey Riddle / 29 July 2010 / Leave a Comment

Matt Giteau will play at fly-half for Australia on Saturday

"Australia could get up a head of steam on Saturday, so the 7.5-point start they get on Betfair could be good value."

Fresh from scalping the Springboks, Australia host New Zealand in Melbourne for round four of the Tri-Nations. Geoffrey Riddle discusses the markets.

Both Australia and New Zealand dismantled the reigning world and tournament champions in their respective head-to-heads, with the All Blacks looking dominant in both their matches in Auckland and Wellington.

Both teams took considerable advantage at the opportunity to run the ball at the stodgy South Africans. Under the watchful eyes of northern hemisphere referees the tactic worked a treat, but this week that free-flowing approach might not be so easy to achieve.

Referee Craig Joubert purses the whistle this weekend, the first southern hemisphere arbiter to take charge of a Tri-Nations fixture this season. Southern hemisphere referees are known for their love of running rugby, but anyone who watched the Super 14 this year will know that the South African arbiters interpreted the new laws in bizarre fashion. Often, they seemed to make decisions which favoured sides from the Rainbow Nation, while at other times they allowed the game to run so that you got huge scores such as the 51-34 scoreline between the Bulls and the Cheetahs, overseen by Jonathan Kaplan.

As a result total points punters are a little bit in the dark, because until the match starts we have virtually no idea how Joubert will officiate. For the record, Craig Joubert's last six top-level internationals have resulted in a total points make-up of less than 40 points, which might make Betfair's total match points market of in-running interest.

As far as the match result is concerned, Australia coach Robbie Deans has picked Matt Giteau at fly-half alongside Berrick Barnes at inside-centre. It is a wonderful combination in the enforced absence of Quade Cooper, and Barnes' cool head under pressure and defensive nous should give Giteau time to show us his best moves.

The big gamble that Deans has made, however, is outside Barnes, where the 20-year-old Rob Horne gets a starting berth. The young Waratah plays a crucial role in the outcome of this encounter, quite simply because New Zealand have attacked extensively through their centres this season.

The bulky Ma'a Nonu scored in both outings against the Springboks earlier in the tournament, and the lithe, but extremely skillful Conrad Smith ghosted through the South African defence in round one to add to his brace against Ireland during the summer tours. Horne is undoubtedly talented, and deserves his chance, but you can't help but suspect that he is a little wet behind the ears when pitted against Nonu and Smith in a Bledisloe Cup clash. The try markets, with both players in mind, may be worth a look.

New Zealand have been such overwhelming favourites on Australian soil only once since they were beaten 22-10 by the Wallabies in the 2003 World Cup. New Zealand were considered nine-points better than Australia in 2007, a match that was also played in Melbourne, but they lost 20-15.

Under Deans the Wallabies have scored the first try of the match on 12 occasions when playing at home, and they could well get up a head of steam on Saturday. If that is the case, the 7.5-point start they get on Betfair could be good value as Graham Henry's charges look to claw back the deficit. All in, though, I'd rather simply back the All Blacks to win by 1-12 points, as Henry's record against Australia as coach reads P17 W14 L3.