Tri-Nations Betting: New Zealand v Australia

Rugby Union / Geoffrey Riddle / 05 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Mils Muliaina crosses the try line last week

"If New Zealand play with Carter, McCaw and Muliaina, they are pretty much unstoppable."

Geoffrey Riddle thinks points are on the menu though the result is not in doubt

After New Zealand's dominant 49-28 victory over Australia in Melbourne last week, it is pretty easy to see why the All Blacks trade at [1.14] to see off Australia for the ninth time in succession when the two meet in Christchurch on Saturday.

It will be no succour to last week's Australia backers that Paddy O'Brien, the IRB referee supremo, has come out this week to say that Drew Mitchell's first 'tackle' on Richie McCaw in Melbourne was 'no way a yellow card' offence.

Mitchell subsequently became the first Australian in 33 years to be shown a red card. After his 43rd-minute indiscretion when he slapped the ball out of Conrad Smith's hands, New Zealand went on to score 17 points in his absence. When you add those 17 points to the ten that the All Blacks scored when Mitchell was cooling off in the bin during the first half, it adds up that New Zealand got an easy ride.

And that has been a theme throughout this Tri-Nations. Of the 112 points that Graham Henry's side have scored during this tournament, 47 of them have been when the opposition have had a man in the bin. It is as if Australia and South Africa have gifted this season's tournament to their bitter rivals.

This time around in Christchurch Australia have promised to do better. Coach Robbie Deans has made three personnel changes and one positional switch, dropping Berrick Barnes and hooker Stephen Moore, while rookie centre Rob Horne is out for the rest of the season after fracturing his arm. The 23-year-old Faingaa brothers step in to become the first twins to play in green and gold since the Ella brothers featured against Italy in 1983, with Anthony taking Barnes's spot in the centres and Saia at hooker.

With Faingaa lining up alongside Adam Ashley-Cooper in midfield, it once again raises the possibility that the Wallabies will be comprehensively outplayed in that crucial area of the pitch. Ma'a Nonu and Smith are in sensational form in the centres for New Zealand, and last week full-back Mils Muliaina compounded the problem for Australia by attacking up the middle channel. Ashley-Cooper is a fine player, but he has just four caps under Deans at outside centre. It is a significant weakness, and one which Henry is bound to exploit.

Australia believe they have found areas of New Zealand's game that they can exploit, too, but surely that is like me knowing that David Haye has got a big punch before having to take him on in the ring. Wallaby scrum-half Will Genia said earlier this week: "We can beat them. We know we're a good enough side to score points. A strength of theirs is that they score about 80 per cent of their points off turnovers."

That's all well and good Mr Genia, but Richie McCaw has been creating turnovers for New Zealand for over 80 matches and no openside flanker yet has managed to master him completely. Knowing New Zealand's weaknesses, and exploiting them, are totally different things. For instance, fly-half Dan Carter showed once again what a lynch-pin he was last week, scoring a charge-down try, as well as setting up at least three tries with his pin-point kicking. New Zealand have won 58 matches out of 66 with Carter pulling the strings as the chief kicker. It's a frightening statistic, and one that goes to highlight what we all knew already: that if New Zealand play with Carter, McCaw and Muliaina, they are pretty much unstoppable.

But Genia's comments go a long way to underline where punters should consider investing their money this weekend. Australia have averaged 29 points per game this season. Last week they scored three tries against the All Blacks. New Zealand have rarely been as porous as they have been this season. Australia or South Africa have scored only three or more tries against the All Blacks 11 times since 2000, and that's from 53 matches.

Although there is little liquidity in the total match points market, over 45.5 match points looks worth backing at anything down to around [1.8], and over 4.5 tries may be worth considering as well.