South Africa v Australia: Tri Nations betting preview

Rugby Union / Geoffrey Riddle / 02 September 2010 / Leave a Comment

Victor Matfield dominated against Australia three weeks ago

"South Africa discovered to their supreme joy that Quade Cooper hasn’t a defensive bone in his body. In typical aggressive Springbok fashion, they attacked the Wallaby No.10 with ruthless vigour, steamrollering him into the ground. "

A combination of altitude and Victor Matfield killed the Aussies last time round so is there any way they can come back, asks Geoffrey Riddle

Australia paid for the altitude factor big time last week when they slumped from a 21-7 lead to a 44-31 defeat to South Africa in Pretoria.

Although a whole host of factors have been mooted as to why Australia crumbled in the second half, there is no denying the words of rookie Wallaby prop James Slipper ahead of this week's Test in Bloemfontein, also at altitude.

The 21-year-old Queenslander had never felt such pain in his lungs, and given that he only played for 25 minutes you can imagine what the other Wallabies were feeling as South Africa ran in three tries in the last hour.

"I personally did feel the altitude," said Slipper earlier this week.

"It is a very different sensation to what you are used to, it burns your throat and leaves your mouth and throat feeling very dry. It hurts in the breathing."

Australia only had a Matt Giteau penalty to show for their second-half efforts last week, but even if you forget the scoreline they were pretty awful in all facets of the game after the break.

In the last few minutes they squandered several good attacking positions by offering up turnover ball, and the Wallaby lineout was under such pressure from Springbok Victor Matfield that they lost four lineouts which were no further than 10m from the home side's tryline.

This all points to severe fatigue, and it must be remembered that it was Australia's first match for three weeks.

In the changing room afterwards, coach Robbie Deans and skipper Rocky Elsom lambasted the team, so much so that Deans intimated to several players that they had their 2011 Rugby World Cup hopes on the line this week.

It's a huge carrot to offer a squad, who clearly believe that they threw a lead away rather than South Africa worked their way back into the match.

For their part, South Africa were lucky. They discovered to their supreme joy that Quade Cooper hasn't a defensive bone in his body. In typical aggressive Springbok fashion, they attacked the Wallaby No.10 with ruthless vigour, steamrollering him into the ground.

Cooper will once again be tested, and if Elsom does not come in to protect his flimsy flyhalf South Africa may once again exploit Australia's weakness. The other reason behind South Africa's first success of this campaign was that Morne Steyn brought his kicking boots. Steyn landed a monster 59m penalty in the rarefied air, and in tandem with Butch James the duo kicked all eight of their attempts at goal.

Aside from those two drawbacks, however, the Aussies were in particularly good shape for the first half hour. Deans has taken precaution against the altitude and has stationed his troops at the sea level resort of Umhlanga Rocks on the Kwa-Zulu-Natal north coast. The squad ascended late on Thursday, which is about the best way of navigating altitude unless you have trained for over a fortnight at that level.

As a result of last week's capitulation the layers have found it necessary to add a few points on to the match handicap, with Australia getting a start on Betfair of 9.5 points.

Last week I backed South Africa to triumph by fewer than 12.5 points, and it was only the second time in ten years that they beat Australia at altitude by more than that margin. I am once again going to employ the same strategy, and will similarly disappointed if Peter de Villiers crew fluke another wide margin victory.