Six Nations Betting / The Betfair Contrarian / 18 March 2009 / Leave a comment

No one loves Ireland more than the Contrarian - few countries have made a greater contribution to underdoggery - yet the cards are stacked very much in Ireland's favour heading into the final weekend of this year's Six Nations and for that reason the Contrarian is opposing them.

Wales need to beat Ireland by 13 points to retain the crown but haven't triumphed against them by such a margin since 1983, while they have only beaten them once at home since then. However, Ireland have shot themselves in the foot before and are more than capable of mastering their own downfall once again. So the Contrarian is backing Wales [5.2 on Betfair] to get the job done at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday and prolong Ireland's wait for a first Championship since 1985. Here's why:

Ireland never complete the Grand Slam

Wales, France, England and Scotland have all won the Grand Slam over the last 20 years but you have to go back to 1948 to find the last time Ireland beat every opponent put in front of them. In 2003, Ireland won each of their first four games meaning that they went into the final day with their destiny in their own hands, as a home win over England would have been enough to win both the Six Nations and complete the Grand Slam but they bottled it and were thrashed 42-6.

Wales have the final day advantage

Wales have triumphed on each of their previous two Six Nations final day meetings with Ireland. In 2005, both sides went into the closing weekend with a chance of winning, but it was Wales who completed their Grand Slam with a 32-20 home win which also allowed France to leapfrog Ireland. The duo's previous final day clash took place in 2000 when Ireland lost 19-23 at home, again allowing France to overtake them in second. The two sides met five times between those games and Ireland won every single time, which clearly suggests that facing Wales on the last day is Ireland's Achilles heel.

And it's not just against Ireland that Wales prosper

In each of the last five tournaments Wales have played their final match at home and they have won four of those. Those wins came against Italy, Ireland, England and France so it wasn't just a case of them being given an easier final game. Instead it shows that they are capable of finishing with a flourish and often save their best performances for the closing stages.

Wales have the best home record of the home nations

If you take the last twelve Six Nations home games of England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales it is the latter who have the best record, having won nine, drawn one and lost just two of their most recent dozen at the Millennium Stadium. They are currently on a run of five consecutive home wins in the competition that no other side, including France and Italy, can rival.

Win margins widen on the final weekend

The statistics show that you have a greater chance of winning heavily on the final weekend of the Six Nations than you do during the rest of the competition, which bodes well for Wales who need to win by 13 points to be crowned champions. Taking into account contests in 2007 and 2008, the combined average win margin over the first four sets of fixtures was 13.3, whereas the average win margin on the final weekend over both years was 17.7.

Gatland expects Ireland to cave under the pressure

Ireland have come close to ending their 24-year wait for the Championship before and have blown it and Wales coach Warren Gatland, who spent three years in charge of Ireland, believes they could fold under pressure again. He said: "There is a lot of pressure and expectation on the Irish team to come to our back-yard and perform. It's how they handle that pressure. There has been expectation on them over a number of years and in a couple of World Cups as well. At international level, when there has been that expectation either to perform in Six Nations tournaments or World Cups, they've sometimes faltered a little bit."